IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - January/February 2015 - 48
Thus far, results have focused on the definition of the scenarios,
the modeling to apply for system simulation, and the method
used to define the grid architecture for 2050.
Contextualization of the Data
The key assumption of the approach is that the main driver
for contextualization is the penetration rate of the technology
being considered (the total number of units at a given time). It
is assumed that the cost and performance trends of a technology
by 2050 are directly correlated with its level of deployment. A
generic methodology has thus been developed for all technologies; for the sake of clarity, the successive steps are displayed
as follows for a particular case, that of electric vehicles (EVs):
1) An overall qualitative assessment is made, which
reflects for the given scenario the deployment level of
EVs, on a three-degree scale (low, medium, and high).
2) In parallel, a subset of key technology variables describing EVs is selected-for example, the penetration level
(number of units deployed by 2050), performance
(driving range), and costs (battery and vehicle).
3) From the value ranges attached to the selected key
technology variables, minimum, average, and maximum values are extracted.
4) By combining the scenario assessments made in step 1
and the EV value tables built in step 3, specific values are
allocated to the subset of EV variables (key technology
variables) for each given scenario, producing a mapping
of minimum, average, and maximum values to the low,
medium, or high scale, depending on the type of variable.
Table 1 displays the results of data contextualization for
battery EVs (BEVs). Each scenario corresponds to a given
penetration rate (high, medium, or low) according to the
analysis described above. The values of specific variables
for each scenario are displayed.
As an example, this means that for a scenario in which
the penetration of BEVs is low, it is expected that battery
costs (250 €/kWh) will be higher than in a scenario in which
the penetration of BEVs is high (140 €/kWh), because of
48
Variables
Unit
2013
2050
Penetration
level
-
-
Low
Medium
High
Number of units 106
0.05
52
104.5
157
Driving range
km
150
250
450
650
Battery cost
€/kWh
450
250
195
140
Consumption
kWh/km 0.16
0.1
0.095
0.09
Battery capacity
kWh
25
42.75
58.5
ieee power & energy magazine
Implementation and Operation
Based on the possible grid architecture for each scenario in
2050, environmental and operational assessments will be performed. The pathway from 2020 to 2050 will also be proposed
based on the deployment of the new technologies identified.
The Environmental Assessment
The environmental assessment methodology is based on a strategic environmental and sustainability assessment (SESA). The
objects of assessment in the SESA will be generation facilities
and the regional generation balance, storage facilities, transmission assets, and the international strategies that will result in grid
architectures, according to the various scenarios and considering plausible strategic options.
The SESA uses a strategic environmental assessment
methodological approach structured around strong success
factors called critical decision factors (CDFs). The CDFs are
designed to focus attention on the environmental issues that
really matter when taking a broad and long-term perspective.
The strategic themes that result from this strong-focus exercise cross-relate the following elements:
✔✔ the e-Highway2050 objectives (i.e., what the project is
trying to achieve)
✔✔ the relevant environmental and sustainability issues
and trends
✔✔ the relevant policy priorities.
Four CDFs are taken into account in the project:
✔✔ CDF 1: social acceptance and acceptability
✔✔ CDF 2: energy security and technologies
✔✔ CDF 3: geopolitical economy and regional equity
✔✔ CDF 4: European regional governance.
The Operational Assessment
table 1. Data contextualization for BEVs.
24
economies of scale, higher investment in R&D, and so on
when more vehicles are produced.
For the operational assessment, steady-state and dynamic
studies will be performed. They will cover the following
types of phenomena:
✔✔ Short term adequacy: frequency stability
✔✔ Current limits: congestion and line loading; shortcircuit levels
✔✔ Voltage limits: steady-state voltage within limits in N and
N-1 situations; voltage stability; risk of voltage collapse
✔✔ Rotor angle stability: interarea oscillations
✔✔ Interactions: coordination of power flow control
devices.
january/february 2015
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