IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2015 - 42
under 50% renewables coming
from those with a high penetration of both wind and solar
120
energy. The study addresses the
50% Solar PV Rooftop
following questions:
120
Solar PV Small
✔ W hat are the operational
100
40% Solar PV Large
challenges of integrating
Solar Thermal
sufficient renewable re33% Wind (Out of State)
80
sources to achieve a 50%
Wind (In State)
renewable grid by 2030?
60
Hydro
✔
What potential solutions
Common Resources
Geothermal
40
are available to facilitate
Biomass
the integration of variable
20
Biogas
renewable resources under a 50% renewable grid?
0
✔
W
hat are the costs and
33%
40%
Large
Small
Rooftop
Diverse
RPS
RPS
Solar
Solar
Solar
GHG impacts of achieving a 50% renewable grid
figure 1. 2030 Renewable generation scenarios by resource type and scenario (in GWh).
in 2030?
(including transportation, industrial, and other nonelectric
✔✔ Would a renewable portfolio with significant quantifuel uses) come from renewable energy sources by 2020.
ties of distributed renewable generation cost less than
By 2030, Germany plans to generate 50% of its electricity
a portfolio of large-scale generation that requires subsupply with renewable resources (including large hydro).
stantial investments in new transmission capacity?
Finland aims to achieve 38% of its final energy consump✔✔ What are some "least regrets" steps that should be taken
tion (including transportation and other end uses) from
prior to-or in tandem with-adopting a higher goal?
renewable energy sources by 2020, in part by relying on
✔✔ What remaining key issues must be better understood
biomass resources.
to facilitate the integration of a high penetration of reWind and solar are the primary renewable resources
newable energy?
available for future development in California, and achievThe study considers four alternative scenarios that
ing a 50% renewable grid would likely require that these achieve 50% renewables and one that achieves 40% renewresources serve at least 40% of California's electric load ables, distinguished by the mix of renewable resources in the
(geothermal, biomass, and small hydro play an important portfolio. All scenarios start from the same mix of resources
role today, but the supply for future expansion is lim- that are assumed to be online in 2030 to meet California's curited). Although many jurisdictions have established high rent 33% renewables portfolio standard (RPS). The four 50%
renewable goals, no large power system in the world has scenarios are as follows:
achieved anywhere close to this level of wind and solar
✔✔ The large solar scenario relies mostly on large, utility-scale
penetration. Among the current world leaders, we have the
solar photovoltaic (PV) resources, in keeping with current
following:
trends in California renewable energy procurement.
✔✔ In Germany, in 2012, 21.9% of electricity generation
✔ The small solar scenario relies mostly on larger,
was renewable, including 7.4% wind and 4.5% solar.
distributed (1-20 MW) ground-mounted solar PV
systems located close to load centers. This scenario
✔✔ In Spain, renewable energy represented 24% of totests whether the economies of scale associated with
tal generation in 2012, including 18% wind and 4%
large-scale solar installations in high-insolation locasolar.
tions outweigh the cost of the transmission required to
✔✔ In Denmark, wind served 30% of the domestic load
bring these resources to load.
in 2012; however, Denmark is a very small system
with strong interconnections to the large European
✔✔ The rooftop solar scenario relies mostly on distributed
grid, and it frequently sells excess wind energy to its
residential and commercial rooftop solar PV installaneighbors.
tions to meet a 50% goal. Rooftop systems may bring
Is a 50% renewable grid achievable with wind and solar as
additional benefits due to reduced losses and deferred
the primary resources? This was the topic of a recent study
transmission and distribution system investment. This
commissioned by California's five largest utilities and led by
scenario tests whether these additional values are sufEnergy and Environmental Economics, Inc. (E3). The study,
ficient to make up for the higher installed cost and
"Investigating a Higher Renewables Portfolio Standard in
lower production of rooftop systems.
California," is the first comprehensive effort to assess the
✔✔ The diverse scenario meets the 50% goal in 2030 by
technical challenges of operating the California system with
-relying on a diverse portfolio of large, utility-scale
Total Renewable Generation (TWh)
160
42
ieee power & energy magazine
july/august 2015
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