IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - 20

A Complex
Problem
Clouded by
Uncertainty

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like el Niño (which affects hydrology and thus water inflows
to reservoirs), fuel prices, terrorism, and the so-called black
swans, which refer to surprising, unforeseen events, such as
the 2008 U.S. financial crisis. In the face of a wide variety
of uncertainties in TEP, different management strategies and
modeling techniques are available. Various properties may
be identified. Hence, alternative groups or more general
classifications of uncertainties are possible, and some have
already been mentioned in TEP literature, with no further
elaboration here.
The problem of dealing with uncertainty is not exclusive
to power systems, as its modern history dates back at least to
1921's seminal economic work by Frank Knight. Over the
course of the century, many new concepts and typologies
have emerged to try to understand uncertainty and deal with
its impacts. Attempts to categorize and conceptualize uncertainty stem from a variety of disciplines comprising economy, finance, social sciences, sustainability, policy making,
and military planning. Although a conceptual framework
for TEP under uncertainty needs to build upon important
july/august 2016

contributions and insights from different disciplines, its primary focus should be serving applications and research.
More precisely, a conceptual framework for planning
under uncertainty is required for three reasons.
✔ Providing a common framework for effective dialogue
is needed to improve communication between professionals of the electric industry and academia.
✔ Focusing future research efforts could be aided by a
deeper understanding of the varied nature of uncertainty, its key properties, and impacts on TEP.
✔ Assessing existing and future approaches to TEP under uncertainty requires further analysis of the properties of uncertainty to identify the advantages and
disadvantages and applicability of each approach.
The conceptual framework needed to fulfill this threefold purpose should properly define the concepts of uncertainty and risk and also characterize and classify the myriad
uncertainties relevant to TEP in a typology simultaneously
practical and based upon solid theoretical foundations. A
framework to address previously discussed issues and exploit
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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016

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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2016 - Cover3
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