IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 40

Reference

4500

4000

3500

3000
2500
2000
1500

2500
2000
1500
1000

500

500
2020

2030

2040

2050

HDV: Hydrogen
LDV: Hydrogen
HDV: Electricity
LDV: Electricity
HDV: Oil/Gas/Bio
LDV: Oil/Gas/Bio

3000

1000

0
2010

High Electrification

5000

VMT (Billion Miles)

5000

0
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

figure 3. Vehicle miles traveled from 2010 to 2050 under the reference and high-electrification scenarios. LDV: light-duty
vehicles; HDV: heavy-duty vehicles.
table 1. The industrial end uses and electric technologies selected for analysis.
Electrotechnology

Industry

End-Use Service

Percent Electrified
by 2050

Electrolytic reduction

Nonferrous metals, excluding aluminum

Process heating

100

Induction heating

Metal fabrication

Process heating

100

Electric boilers

All manufacturing industries

Conventional boiler use

100

Resistance heating and melting

Glass

Process heating

100

Direct arc melting

Iron and steel

Process heating

Industrial process heat pump

Food, pulp and paper, and chemicals

Process heating

100

cost-effectively serve processes with high-temperature and
large energy demands. in addition, our analysis does not
consider industrial equipment turnover, relative economics
of electric and nonelectric technologies, and nonenergy benefits and impacts such as productivity and product quality.
in addition to the high-electrification view, we also consider separate scenarios where significant increases in energy
efficiency are achieved, in combination with high electrification, across all sectors. We refer to this as the high-combined
scenario, in which transportation efficiency (in terms of miles
per gallon of gasoline equivalent) is assumed to increase
beyond u.s. federal vehicle efficiency standards even after
the standards sunset. For buildings, we assume efficiency
improvements in electric end-use devices from 2017 to 2050
at various rates ranging from 0.5%/year to nearly 2%/year.
efficiency measures are assumed for services provided by
new electric technologies as well as in other end uses including lighting, refrigeration, and other plug loads. For industry,
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ieee power & energy magazine

we simply assume an efficiency improvement of 0.8%/year.
this estimate was developed by weighting the current opportunity for state-of-the-art energy reductions identified by
u.s. Department of energy energy bandwidth studies by
their relative fraction of 2010 manufacturing primary energy
use, assuming these reductions would be achieved by 2050.
all remaining manufacturing industries not covered by the
energy bandwidth studies were assumed to reduce energy
use by 10% by 2050. these top-down sets of assumptions
do not specify the efficiency measures to achieve these rates
but, instead, rely on a wide range of measures such as vehicle
lightweighting, building insulation improvements, and process improvements.
Figure 4 shows annual electricity consumption estimated
for the high-electrification and high-combined scenarios.
under high electrification, annual electricity demand grows
by 2.6%/year resulting in nearly 11,000 tWh of electricity
demand by 2050. this growth rate is roughly in line with
july/august 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018