IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 45

Future Work
and Remaining
Research Gaps

6,000

Energy System Emissions

Refe

renc

MMT CO2

5,000

4,000

Elec

Grid

3,000

1,000

Dec

ation

arbo

niza
tion
Single Measure
E
ec le
Impact
c
ar tr
bo ific
+
n
a
En
iz tio
at n
er
io
gy
n
Ef
fic
ie
nc
y
Combined Impact
83% Reduction from 2005 Levels
an

0
2010
6,000

trific

2,000

2020

2030

2040

2050

Power System Emissions

5,000

4,000
MMT CO2

grid decarbonization, 2050 u.s.
energy system emissions are
estimated to decline by 36-38%
from 2005 levels.
We estimate that combining
electrification with grid decarbonization can lower energy system
emissions significantly. For co2,
we estimate nearly 3.2 billion metric tons fewer emissions in 2050
(66% lower than the reference scenario) when both these measures
are achieved to the degree envisioned. Furthermore, implementing high end-use energy efficiency
would help avoid an additional
160 MMt. We find that even with
these combined measures-nearcomplete electrification of transport and buildings, substantial
electrification of industry, and
drastic decarbonization of electricity generation-are insufficient to
achieve the 2050 emissions levels
indicated by climate scientists to
reduce the most-severe impacts
of climate change. u.s. energy
system emissions in 2050 are estimated to decline by 72% of 2005
levels with high electrification
and grid decarbonization and by
75% with additional high energy efficiency.

3,000

2,000

Electrification
Decarbonization

1,000

0
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

the results presented here reflect
an initial attempt to explore the
figure 7. Projected energy system and electricity system emissions.
potential implications of widespread electrification of energy
recognizing the shortcomings of our preliminary analyservices in the buildings, transportation, and industrial sectors in the future evolution of the u.s. electricity system. this anal- sis, nrel, in collaboration with other researchers, has initiysis provides a quantitative but approximate indication of the ated a new study to employ higher fidelity modeling to better
impacts that electrification might have on u.s. emissions and understand the impacts of widespread electrification in the
power sector needs. given its exploratory nature, many gaps united states. the new study, referred to as the electrificaremain. the completed analysis only considers a limited set of tion Futures study (eFs) (www.nrel.gov/efs), is designed to
electrification, efficiency, and power sector scenarios, whereas employ three new modeling components missing from the
large uncertainties exist for many assumptions made for each existing study. First, the eFs will use a consistent cross-sector
scenario. in addition, the electrification potential estimates for framework (the energyPatHWays model) to track stock
each sector are based on relatively aggregated analysis and do turnover, costs, and performance for 366 end-use technolonot consider explicit technologies, adoption patterns, or other gies serving all major end uses. second, the eFs will develop
details that could ultimately affect anticipated electrification, a new bottom-up engineering model to project hourly elecfuture energy use, and consumption profiles, all of which would tricity consumption from future buildings, transportation,
and industrial equipment stock. referred to as demand-side
have material impact on electricity supply and emissions.
july/august 2018

ieee power & energy magazine

http://www.nrel.gov/efs

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