IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 47

✔ Policy design and analysis. an assessment of differ-

ent policy interventions, including technology-push and
demand-pull policies, for electrification would inform
decision makers of the options to increase electrification or reduce the negative impacts of electrification.
✔ Nonelectric options. although this article focuses on
electrification, an understanding of nonelectric technologies or indirect electric technologies (e.g., power to
gas) is also needed to position electrification within a
broader suite of options. For carbon emissions mitigation, multiple options exist, and electrification may not
be the lowest-cost or most-preferred solution for certain
subsectors. an assessment of and investment in these
alternative pathways could be needed.

Summary
to a typical consumer, electricity can appear unlimited, low
cost, and available, literally, at the flip of a switch. From a system
operator's perspective, planning for and maintaining an efficient
and reliable power system relies on a complex array of considerations in power systems engineering, economics, and policy and
regulatory affairs. electrification-although a robust and likely
necessary pathway to a clean energy future-requires navigating the complexities of the power system along with the interactions with multiple other complex systems, including energy
consumption and end-use service demand in the residential,
commercial, transportation, and industrial sectors.
a small but growing number of studies exploring the potential of widespread electrification in the u.s. energy system
identifies the benefits of electrification, including the potential
for substantial reductions in gHg and criteria pollutant emissions. our scenario analysis, which focuses on a near-complete
electrification across all major economic sectors, finds that
electrification could indeed result in significant reductions in
energy-related co2 emissions; however, the magnitude of the
reductions is strongly sensitive to how the power system might
evolve. Without new electric sector policies, we find reductions
in systemwide energy-related emissions to 36% of 2005 levels
by 2050 with electrification only. similar energy-system emissions are found by decarbonizing the power system to 17% of
2005 levels in 2050 alone (without electrification). the combination of electrification and a grid emissions cap would yield
greater emissions reductions (72-75% of 2005 levels by 2050),
especially if end-use energy efficiency is employed. these
energy systemwide reductions still do not meet the targets that
many estimate will be needed to reduce the worst impacts of
climate change, therefore highlighting that other means beyond
electrification (and grid decarbonization) would be needed if
the achievement of such goals is desired.
although electrification by itself is not a complete solution for eliminating all environmental hazards as indicated by
our analysis and others, it is difficult to imagine pathways to
achieve significant reductions in gHg emissions that do not
include increased electrification. the extent to which electrification could be economically viable relative to other options is
july/august 2018

an open research question. Many other fundamental research
topics related to electrification-including consumer adoption, electric technology evolution, macroeconomic impacts,
health and environmental impacts, bulk power system operations and reliability, and distribution system impacts-are
also needed. our analysis and ongoing studies, such as the
electrification Futures study, have started to reveal insights
in these areas but the herculean task requires a much greater
research endeavor. this research is needed to keep electricity
supply reliable and enable it to power wider swaths of a cleaner
u.s. economy.

For Further Reading
D. steinberg, D. Bielen, J. eichmann, K. eurek, J. logan, t.
Mai, c. McMillan, a. Parker, l. Vimmerstedt, and e. Wilson,
"electrification & decarbonization: a preliminary analysis
exploring u.s. energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in
scenarios with widespread end-use electrification and power
sector decarbonization," national renewable energy laboratory tech rep. nrel/tP-6a20-68214, 2017.
"renewable electricity futures study," National Renewable Energy Laboratory, national renewable energy laboratory tech rep. nrel/tP-6a20-52409, 2012.
J. H. Williams, B. Haley, F. Kahrl, J. Moore, a. D. Jones,
M. s. torn, and H. McJeon, "Pathways to deep decarbonization in the united states," the u.s. report of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of the sustainable Development
solutions network and the institute for sustainable Development and international relations, 2014.
"united states mid-century strategy for deep decarbonization," the White House, 2016. https://unfccc.int/files/focus/longterm_strategies/application/pdf/us_mid_century_strategy.pdf
K. Dennis, "environmentally beneficial electrification:
electricity as the end-use option," Electricity J., vol. 28, no. 9,
pp. 100-112, nov. 2015.
P. Jadun, c. McMillan, D. steinberg, M. Muratori, l. Vimmerstedt, and t. Mai, "electrification futures study: end-use
electric technology cost and performance projections through
2050," national renewable energy laboratory tech. rep.
nrel/tP-6a20-70485, 2017.

Biographies
Trieu Mai is with the national renewable energy laboratory, golden, colorado.
Daniel Steinberg is with the national renewable energy
laboratory, golden, colorado.
Jeffrey Logan is with the national renewable energy
laboratory, golden, colorado.
David Bielen is with the national renewable energy
laboratory, golden, colorado.
Kelly Eurek is with the national renewable energy laboratory, golden, colorado.
Colin McMillan is with the national renewable energy
laboratory, Washington, D.c.
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https://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/us_mid_century_strategy.pdf https://unfccc.int/files/focus/long-term_strategies/application/pdf/us_mid_century_strategy.pdf

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018