IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 52

table 1. Data shifts from 2017 and 2050
in Two Degrees.
Today

2050

Great Britain population

66 million

75 million

Number of households

28.8 million

32.4 million

Assumed economic growth
rate

2.1%

Installed renewable
generation capacity

34% of
installed
capacity

60% of
installed
capacity

Carbon intensity of power
generation

242 g/kWh

2 g/kWh

Great Britain gas demand

817 TWh

399 TWh

Power generation gas
demand (including CCS)

249 TWh

34 TWh

Industrial and commercial
gas demand

235 TWh

205 TWh

Residential gas demand

333 TWh

34 TWh

Transport gas demand

0 TWh

126 TWh

Great Britain electricity
demand

306 TWh

368 TWh

Industrial and commercial
electricity demand

191 TWh

217 TWh

Residential electricity
demand

114 TWh

116 TWh

Transport electricity
demand

1 TWh

35 TWh

Installed residential smart
meters

1.6 million

32 million

in renewable generation (solar, wind, and some marine generation) and a large increase in installed nuclear capacity.
Flexible sources of electricity, to support a highly intermittent system, are provided by increased interconnection to
other countries and just under 10 gW of storage from a variety of sources. in addition, this scenario sees carbon capture
and storage (CCS) being commercially available by 2030,
allowing for flexible electricity generation using natural gas
with minimal carbon emissions. By 2050, the carbon intensity
of electricity generation will have reduced to 2 g of Co2/KWh
(compared to an average of 242 g/KWh today).
in terms of overall electricity demand, more electricity is
being used in the 2050 two degrees scenario than today and
is accompanied by a fall in natural gas demand. a number of
factors bring about this shift. the electrification of transport
and heat (discussed below) and a growth in industrial output
due to this scenario's high economic growth rate assumption
increase the demand for electricity. however, improved appliance and lighting efficiency and better home insulation reduce
the overall demand for energy. it is assumed that consumers
are more engaged in trying to reduce the environmental
52

ieee power & energy magazine

impact of their energy usage, particularly at peak time, and
this is assisted by improved information communication technology. the scale of these shifts is captured in table 1.

What Are The Challenges in Achieving This?
For this significant change to take place, the two degrees
scenario makes a number of key assumptions, some of which
may be challenging to implement on the actual system.
First, it is assumed that there will be a supportive policy
and regulatory environment in several areas:
✔ regulation and policy to encourage or mandate the
insulation of homes and greater appliance efficiency,
including market support mechanisms for insulation,
legislation for new buildings and new appliances, and
scrappage programs
✔ continued policy support for the roll out of smart meters, resulting in all buildings having smart meters by
2021 to encourage demand response
✔ continued commitment by the government to maintain a carbon floor price and phase out all use of coal
by the mid-2020s
✔ continued support for new low-carbon generation capacity, for example, Cfd continuing for fewer established technologies and other supportive regimes to
de-risk new investment such as cap and floor schemes
✔ regulation and policy to ensure the electrification of
heat and transport (this will be discussed later).
✔ government backing to enable financial and political
support for nuclear power build out
✔ CCS technical developments encouraged by government grants and incentives.
moreover, in the two degrees scenario, a high degree of
engagement from consumers is assumed. For example, the
majority of consumers will deliberately choose more efficient appliances where possible, seek other ways of reducing
energy demand, and choose to shift energy demand away
from peak times as a result of time-of-use tariffs.

Decarbonizing Heat
The Current State of Heat Decarbonization
in the United Kingdom
natural gas currently provides the majority of space and
water heating in the United Kingdom. Since natural gas is a
carbon-emitting fuel, heating is responsible for a large share
of the United Kingdom's carbon emissions. From a decarbonization perspective, heat is lagging behind in the journey
toward a low-carbon world.
Prior to the 1970s, the gas supplied to households in the United
Kingdom was derived from coal, so-called "town gas." however,
in 1966, cleaner natural gas was discovered in the U.K. continental shelf (UKCS), and the decision was made to convert all of the
United Kingdom's use of gas to natural gas through the use of this
indigenous resource. this involved refitting over 40 million appliances, and the project took ten years to complete.
july/august 2018



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018

Contents
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