IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 62

on existing and announced pipeline infrastructure. iterations
between auroraXmP and gPCm ensured that gas prices
and power demand were in sync.

Scenarios and Results
in both studies, scenarios were developed to meet the 40 ×
30 economy-wide ghg reduction goals, while the California study also extended these scenarios further to achieve
the 80 × 50 ghg reduction goal.

California Study Scenarios
in the California study, ten mitigation scenarios were tested
in the Pathways model; each mitigation scenario was constrained to achieve both the 40 × 30 and 80 × 50 goals. in
contrast, the reference scenario reflects a business-asusual pathway with policies frozen at pre-2015 levels. the
reference scenario includes a 33% renewable portfolio standard (rPs) through 2030, historical levels for ee savings
goals, modest levels of transportation electrification, and no
new building electrification.
the high-electrification scenario is one of these ten
mitigation scenarios and includes a doubling of ee above
historical goals, additional high levels of industrial efficiency, and an increase in renewable generation to about
a 70% rPs by 2030 (equivalent to approximately 60%
renewable generation, excluding large hydroelectric generation). the high-electrification scenario also includes
the increased electrification of buildings, cars, trucks,
buses and off-road equipment, as well as improvements in
the fuel economy of vehicles and reductions in per capita
vehicle miles traveled.

in the high-electrification scenario, 60% of new sales (and
20% of total stock) of ldVs are assumed to be zero-emission
vehicles (ZeV) by 2030. this translates to 5 million lightduty plug-in hybrid eVs (PheVs) and all-eVs, with an additional 800,000 ldV fuel-cell vehicles by 2030. this scenario
assumes 38,000 battery electric (3% of total) medium-duty
trucks. in addition, 50% of new sales (approximately 20%
of total stock) of water heaters and heating, ventilation, and
air-conditioning (hVaC) systems are assumed to be highefficiency electric heat pumps by 2030. By 2040, 100% of new
sales of ldVs and building hVaC systems and water heaters
are assumed to be electric.
scenarios that excluded building electrification were
also tested. these scenarios achieved the state's 2030 and
2050 ghg reduction goals only when relatively high levels
of out-of-state biomethane, hydrogen, or synthetic carbonneutral methane were available. using current cost assumptions, these electrification alternatives are expected to have
a higher total societal cost than the building electrification
scenario. however, future costs for hydrogen, biomethane,
and building retrofit costs to convert to electric end uses are
not well understood. as a result, these scenario cost projections are highly uncertain.
in contrast, it does not appear to be feasible to design a
scenario that meets California's ghg reduction goals without nearly complete adoption of zero-emission on-road cars
and trucks as well as significant electrification of other forms
of transportation. While biofuels represent an alternative
option to electrification in the transportation sector, the supply of sustainable biofuels does not appear to be sufficient to
replace a majority of transportation fuels.

TWh

California Study Results
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Hydrogen Production
Other Transportation Electrification
Light-Duty EVs
Incremental Building Electrification
Buildings
Industrial
Agriculture and Other

figure 3. California electric loads by sector and selected
end use in the high-electrification scenario (TWh, 2015-2050).
62

ieee power & energy magazine

Incremental Electric Energy
and Peak Demand Requirements

in California's high-electrification scenario, total electricity
demand remains relatively flat between present day and 2030
due to the assumed doubling of building ee savings by 2030,
offsetting the impacts of transport and building electrification. after 2030, electricity demand increases dramatically as
higher levels of electrification and new electricity demands for
hydrogen production for fuel-cell vehicles begin to outweigh
the impacts of electric ee. as a result, by 2050, total electricity demand in the high-electrification scenario is 60% higher
than current levels (figure 3). in the long term, the largest
new sources of electricity demand are from the transportation
sector, including electrified light-duty eVs, electrified trucks,
freight, and other transportation vehicles, which represent 20%
of total electricity demand in 2050.
another new source of electricity demand in this scenario is grid-connected electrolysis for hydrogen production.
hydrogen produced using low-carbon electricity reduces the
need for renewable curtailment and/or energy storage and
represents a low-carbon energy carrier to help decarbonize
july/august 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018