IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 67

of medium or heavy-duty trucking, or other transportation addition of new grid-connected battery storage. Beyond 2030,
sectors, as the California scenario does. as a result, by 2030, the California study suggests that hydrogen production could
the total new transportation electrification loads in both sce- emerge as an important energy storage medium and could help
narios are comparable, representing between 8 and 9% of total reduce curtailment.
natural gas demand declines in both regions between
loads in California and the northeast.
the northeast scenario assumes relatively higher levels today and 2030, although the decrease is more pronounced
of building electrification and lower ee improvements than in California than in the northeast due to the higher levthe California scenario. in addition, since building heating els of renewable generation and ee in the California scedemands are higher in the northeast than in California, nario. California's demand for natural gas from electric
these electrification assumptions result in a higher share of generation decreases by nearly 40% over this period, while
total loads coming from electric heat. in the northeast sce- nonelectric gas demand declines by 15%. in the northeast,
nario, nearly 25% of building heat demand is met by heat electric generation gas demand decreases by 20%, while
pumps by 2030, compared to only a 7% increase in Califor- nonelectric gas demand declines by only 1%. since the
nia. in the northeast scenarios, total electric heating loads northeast has a higher reliance on higher emitting fuel oils
are nearly as large as transportation electrification loads by for building heating than California, significant ghg savings can be achieved by switching to both natural gas and
2030 (table 1).
a comparison of the two studies' results across the electricity for heat.
five metrics established at the outset of this article illustrates some
of the key differences and similarities between the decar- Summary
bonization strategies simulated in each region (table 2). the long-term decarbonization of our energy economies is
the California scenario simulates a more diversified approach expected to require not just high levels of ee and low-carbon
to decarbonization, with a heavy reliance on ee, renew- electricity but also significant transportation and end-use elecable energy, biofuels, electrification, and flexible loads. the trification by 2050. this article provides greater clarity on the
northeast scenario maintains steady growth in ee but accel- changes to the California and northeast energy systems on
erates re development and electrification to simulate how the that path to 2050. the study results suggest that while existsystem would operate in a high-re, highly electrified future.
ing energy-policy mandates achieve significant reductions in
despite the differences in scenario design between the study
table 2. The 40 × 30 scenario results for California
regions, it is useful to compare the
and the Northeast in 2030, compared to present day.
regional results. in the California scenario, electricity demand
Today
2030
hardly increases by 2030 in the
Category
California
Northeast
California
Northeast
high-electrification scenario, due
to high levels of ee offsetting new
Total electricity demand (TWh) 288
291
295
334
electrification loads, while peak
Electricity demand due to
1
1
30
50
demand slightly declines, again
electrification (TWh)
due to high levels of ee, as well
Peak electricity demand (GW)
61
58
59
68
as additional demand response
RE Curtailment (RE generation)
0%
<1%
4%
5%
(dr), flexible loads and daytime
controlled charging of eVs. in
Natural gas demand-electric
1179
863
669
703
generation (bcf/yr)
contrast, in the northeast scenario,
less ee, dr, and flexible charging
Natural gas demand-
1616
1336
1370
1319
is assumed, resulting in significant
nonelectric generation (bcf/yr)
increases in both total electricity
Carbon intensity of power
231
227
99
128
demand and peak demand. in both
generation (g CO2/kWh)
studies, the load factor is observed
Carbon intensity of nonelectric
5307
5307
4563*
5307
to increase.
generation natural gas (g CO2/
therm)
total levels of renewable energy
curtailment are similar across both
72
56
32
40
Total electricity sector GHG
regions, despite the higher prevaemissions (MMTCO2e)
lence of solar in California. in the
Average delivered cost of
$0.16
$.16
$0.19
$.19
California scenario, overgeneration
electricity (US$/kWh)
of solar is avoided, in part, through
*The California 2030 high-electrification scenario includes biomethane blended into
flexible loads and daytime chargthe natural gas pipeline, which reduces the carbon intensity of gas.
ing of eVs but also through the
july/august 2018

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Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018