IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018 - 94

94

ieee power & energy magazine

july/august 2018

EIA

Pacific Northwest
National
Laboratory

National
Renewable Energy
Laboratory

Pacific Northwest
National
Laboratory

The Brattle Group

Energy and
Environmental
Economics (E3)

Iyer et al.
(2017)

Steinberg
et al.
(2017)

Midcentury
Strategy
(2016)

Weiss et
al. (2017)

Williams
et al.
(2014)

Entity Responsible
for Modeling

EIA AEO
(2017)

Study

Top-down energy
sector assessment
to reach low GHG
goal

Business as usual
reference case

Study Objective

Mixed case
(balanced
renewables,
nuclear, fossil
fuel with carbon
capture and
storage)

Full electrification
of heating and
transport

Benchmark

Top-down;
feasibility of low
GHG emissions,
including for the
energy sector

Top-down
calculation of
electrified heating
and transport

Top-down
vision for high
decarbonization,
including for the
energy sector

High electrification Bottom-up
with CO2 emissions energy sector
goal
assessment of high
electrification
with and without
decarbonization

High electrification

Reference case

Electrification
Scenario Name in
Study

Literature review;
assumes significant
adoption of
electrified
technologies for
end uses

PATHWAYS:
energy sector,
accounting model

No model;
calculations made
based on EIA AEO
2015

GCAM-USA,
integrated
assessment model,
optimization model

Specified by user;
implemented in
model through
adoption curves

Exogenous; water
and space heating
gradually fully
electrify

Exogenous;
technology
assumptions
developed by the
U.S. Department of
Energy

ReEDS, electric
Expert judgment
sector capacityexpansion
optimization model

GCAM-USA
integrated
assessment and
optimization model

NEMS,
Business as usual
energy system
plus technology
optimization model improvement over
time

Model Used for
Scenario Analysis

Methodology
for Estimating
Building
Electrification

Specified by user;
implemented in
model through
adoption curves

Omitted

Exogenous;
technology
assumptions
developed by the
U.S. Department of
Energy

Based on market
potential analysis
(EPRI 2010)

Based on Steinberg
et al. (2017)

Business as usual
plus technology
improvement over
time

Methodology
for Estimating
Industry
Electrification

table 1. The methodology and objectives of the studies reviewed in this analysis.

Specified by user;
implemented in
model through
adoption curves

Exogenous; lightduty, commercial,
and freight landbased transport
fully electrify

Exogenous;
technology
assumptions
developed by the
U.S. Department of
Energy

Adoption rates
exogenously
determined;
vehicle stock
model estimates
electrification
potential given
adoption rates

Electric vehicles
assumed cost
competitive
with internal
combustion engine
by 2030 for lightduty vehicles and
2050 for mediumand heavy-duty
vehicles

Business as usual
plus technology
improvement over
time

Methodology
for Estimating
Transportation
Electrification

Exogenously
determined; 80%
below 1990
levels by 2050

Output: 72%
below 2015 levels
by 2050

Exogenous;
economy-wide net
GHG reductions of
80% below 2005
levels by 2050

Exogenous; power
sector 83% below
2005 levels by
2050

Exogenous;
economy-wide net
GHG emissions
reductions of 80%
below 2005 levels
by 2050

None

Decarbonization
Target
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - July/August 2018
