IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014 - 72

5) Capacity for uncertainties in construction refers to
the capacity for construction to maintain reliability
in case of delays or cancellations of planned power
plant construction.

120
(KRW/kWh)

100
80
60

Sixth BPE Generation Mix

Average
Residential

Industrial
Commercial

2011

2008

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

Agricultural

figure 22. Electricity prices in South Korea, 1981-2012.

4,800 MW of LNG-fired generation, 4,560 MW of
renewable energy, and 3,710 MW of regional collective
energy service (RCES). The RCES, which is also sometimes called community energy supply (CES), is made up
of independent power producers (IPPs) that use distributed generators, combined-cycle generators, and thermal
and electrical energy production plants in South Korea.
2) Fixed capacity refers to the capacity of power plants
under construction, those with contracts for major
equipment or construction expansions, and those with
a retirement plan.
3) Additional renewable capacity during the planning
period is 4,560 MW, which is not the nominal capacity but the load-carrying capability (and not the nominal capacity).
4) Additional RCES (or CES) capacity during the planning period is 3,710 MW, which just as for renewables
refers to the load-carrying capability.

3.4
5
5.7
6

5.2

4.8

13.9
3.3
2.7

18.7

23.3

20.4

0.5

25.1

30.3

28.7

25.3

22.6

20.9

23.1

2012

2015

2020

2025

(%)

24.6

5.9
8.6
4.3
3.6
28.9

1.4
1
28.6

3
0.8

Nuclear

Bituminous

Anthracite

Petroleum

PHS

Renewables

figure 23. Generation mix in South Korea's Sixth BPE.
72

ieee power & energy magazine

Figure 23 shows the generation mix called for in the Sixth BPE.
The Sixth BPE data are described in greater detail in Table 4.
Based on the Sixth BPE, the effective capacity mix in 2025
will include be 27.7% nuclear power plants (NPPs), 35.0% coal
thermal power plants (CPPs), 24.5% LNG combined-cycle
plants (CCPs), 0.9% oil, 3.6% pumped-storage hydro (PSH),
3.6% renewable, and 4.7% RES. Other highlights of the plan
include the following:
✔ Increased uncertainty in demand forecast: The
forecast demand growth is larger than that of the Fifth
BPE. The recent shortage in capacity and the criticism
of the past underestimation of demand growth appear
to have influenced this relatively higher demand
growth forecast. A macroeconomic forecasting model
was used for demand forecasting in place of the microeconomic models used in the previous BPE. This macroeconomic forecast model incorporates assumptions
about the economic growth rate, electricity price, and
industry structure. Errors in the assumptions could
have the effect of overestimating future demand.
✔ Uncertain nuclear and transmission plans: The nuclear
power construction plan in the Fifth BPE is currently in
effect. Additional construction of NPPs was not planned
in the Sixth BPE, however. A decision on additional NPP
construction will be part of the National Basic Plan of
Energy 2013. The transmission expansion plan was
announced recently. Numerous uncertainties exist regarding transmission line construction, however, because
of difficulties achieving public
acceptance of siting choices.
✔ Aggressive renewable tar4.7
get: The renewable capacity
planned in the Sixth BPE is
20.2
27,929 MW by 2027, which
3
0.8
is significantly larger than
that envisioned in the Fifth
20.1
BPE. The feasibility of physi0.5
cally realizing this amount of
28.2
renewables is unclear given
the uncertainties regarding
their cost and availability.
✔ Coal-focused plan: Listed
22.7
in the Sixth BPE are 12
additional coal units totaling
2027
10,740 MW, whereas nine
LNG
units totaling only 6,350 MW
Others
were already planned in the
Fifth BPE. Recent high system
marginal prices and supply
november/december 2014

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2014