IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 43

Estimated Irradiance (W/M2)
Updated:
25 Feb. 2017 at 11:30 HST

11:45

Estimated Irradiance (W/M2)
Updated:
25 Feb. 2017 at 12:00 HST

Solar Bright Spots

Estimated Irradiance (W/M2)
Updated:
25 Feb. 2017 at 12:15 HST

12:00

12:15

0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
720
810
900
990
1,080
1,170
0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
720
810
900
990
1,080
1,170
0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
720
810
900
990
1,080
1,170
0
90
180
270
360
450
540
630
720
810
900
990
1,080
1,170

11:30

Estimated Irradiance (W/M2)
Updated:
25 Feb. 2017 at 11:45 HST

(a)
Renewable Watch-Oahu

25 Feb. 2017
6:24 p.m.

1,200

Load (MW)

1,100
1,000
900

100
80
Net Load Decrease
1,000
60
PV Generation Increase
600
40
500
20
0
500
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 00:00
Time
700

West Oahu Solar Irradiance
Central Oahu Solar Irradiance
Oahu Wind Production
Net System Load

Wind (MW)

Solar
Irradiance (W/m2)

800

South Oahu Solar Irradiance
East Oahu Solar Irradiance
Gross System Load

(b)

figure 1. An example of a system ramping event due to weather impact on distributed resources from Hawaii's SWIFT
forecast. (a) Solar bright spots cause (b) a rooftop photovoltaic (PV) ramp-up, resulting in a sudden system ramp-down
event and overfrequency condition in the middle of the day (<15-min event).

For example, within the Spanish peninsular system, a task
of the transmission system operator (TSO) Red Eléctrica de
España (REE) is to assure that there is enough liquidity in
the upward tertiary reserve market, because there is no specific capacity contracted from reserve providers and liquidity is assured by obligatory bidding. Therefore, it is of the
utmost importance to guarantee that the system is operated
with enough running reserves.
REE's uncertainty-based approach uses different probability distributions depending on the RES production level.
This probabilistic approach takes into account the historically
november/december 2017

observed errors of demand, wind, and solar forecasts but not
the uncertainty associated with the real meteorological situation predicted for the upcoming hours. Even with some further
improvement in the forecast quality, large deviations are still
occasionally experienced (often referred to as outliers). These
outliers are located on the flat, long tail of the probability distribution function of the forecast errors and clearly present a
threat to the reliability and security of a power grid. The presence of these outliers also places more burden on the operators,
as manual actions may be required. Sometimes, these outliers
are driven by inclement weather conditions, for instance, icing.
ieee power & energy magazine

43



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017

IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 1
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 2
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 4
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 9
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 79
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 81
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 82
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 83
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 84
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 85
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 86
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 87
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 88
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 89
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 90
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 91
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 92
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 93
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 94
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 95
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 96
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 97
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 100
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 101
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 105
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 106
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 108
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IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 110
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 111
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 112
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 113
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 114
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 115
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - 116
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy Magazine - November/December 2017 - Cover4
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