IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - 68

metodología central es usar ecuaciones diferenciales esto-
cásticas multidimensionales (sde, por sus siglas en inglés)
para generar cronologías de velocidad eólica, donde la parte
de desviación de las sde puede modelar la característica
estocástica y de intermitencia de cada parque eólico y las
dependencias temporales y espaciales pueden ser captura-
das por la parte de difusión multidimensional en las sde. el
proceso se lleva a cabo de la siguiente manera:
1) calcular los índices característicos clave de las veloci-
dades eólicas según los datos históricos de velocidad
eólica, como la distribución de probabilidad, el coe-
ficiente de autocorrelación, el coeficiente de interco-
rrelación y las velocidades eólicas promedio por mes
y hora.
2) aplicar los conjuntos de sde multidimensionales
para generar una cronología multidimensional de ve-
locidades eólicas.
3) modificar las velocidades eólicas considerando el
efecto débil.
4) convertir las velocidades eólicas en las salidas de po-
tencia eólica usando la curva de potencia de una tur-
bina eólica.

5) tomar una muestra de la disponibilidad de cada tur-
bina eólica.
6) obtener las salidas de potencia eólica simuladas, se-
gún las salidas de potencia eólica, considerando la
curva de potencia y el modelo de confiabilidad de la
turbina eólica.
en comparación con la producción de potencia eólica,
la producción FV tiene una parte tanto determinista como
estocástica. la parte determinista es la radiación solar y se
puede calcular fácilmente para cada estación FV. la parte
estocástica es la pérdida de producción provocada por las
nubes y los aerosoles. la simulación de la cronología del
efecto de desprendimiento es similar a la de la potencia
eólica. el proceso se lleva a cabo de la siguiente manera:
1) usar el modelo de radiación solar global para simular
la intensidad de radiación solar sin los efectos de des-
prendimiento.
2) usar las sde para tomar una muestra del índice de
claridad que representa el efecto del desprendimien-
to de nubes. calcular los coeficientes de reflexión
y refracción según el índice de claridad y la altitud
del sitio.

(a)

(b)
120

160

Salida de potencia FV (MW)

Salida de potencia eólica (MW)

180
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156
Tiempo (horas)
(c)

100
80
60
40
20
0

0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156
Tiempo (horas)
(d)

gráfico 5. Programa de software para la simulación y el análisis de producción de energía renovable: (a) y (b) las interfaces de usuario básicas y (c) y (d) la producción de potencia eólica y FV simuladas, respectivamente, de diez sitios.
68

ieee power & energy magazine

mayo/junio 2018



Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018

Contenidos
IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - Cover1
IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - Cover2
IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - Contenidos
IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - 2
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IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - Cover3
IEEE Power & Energy - Spanish - May/June 2018 - Cover4
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