GPS World - January 2008 - (Page 60)

BUSINESS OUTLOOK | Mass Market OEM (Mass Market, continued from 58) business users making decisions between a PND and a smartphone. Nokia’s acquisition of Navteq has shown its interest in developing the market for LBS services based on the smartphone platform. Manufacturers also seek LBS applications to drive enterprise business development. Fleet managers will look closely at replacing hardwired GPS systems with wireless GPS-enabled systems. The shift from vehicle-centric tracking to drivercentric tracking could save managers considerable investment, as smartphones can provide tracking, communications, integration with vehicle diagnostics (via Bluetooth), and electronic reporting through e-forms and data transfer. Maps. The only way Nokia and TomTom can pay off their recent acquisitions of Navteq and Tele Atlas respectively (though the Tele Atlas deal is still under European review) will be to roll out new mapping features to increase interest and revenues. Expect to see more 3D and terrestrial and satellite-based imagery. Google and Microsoft opted out of the bidding war for the two mapmakers, but I predict we will see some next-generation map visualization products coming to market from these companies. Google has made tremendous investments in building its mapping databases, and with the much talked-about Google phone somewhere out there, we will see a platform and advanced mapping data perfectly integrated from the ground up to provide the best of search engine capacity, mapping, social networking, and location-based advertising content. GPS Chips. I predict a real shootout on the GPS chip side, both on price and between the players. The market forecast is strong through 2012, but the real game is that only a handful of companies buy in really large quantities. The smartphone makers have added to the mix now, which will add volume as the chipmakers struggle to differentiate their wares to their buyers. 2007 saw a lot of manufacturers changing chip suppliers. The majority stated the reason as better performance, 60 GPS World | January 2008 although I’m sure pricing was really the endgame. 2007 saw TI re-enter the GPS chip game, Broadcom buy Global Locate, Atheros buy u-Nav, and SiRF struggle under increasing competitive pressure. A host of seasoned executives moved from one company to the next. Look for new entrants in 2008. This game is just getting started, but I predict after a few more years we will see further consolidation in this segment. Industrial Niche Markets. In any new technology, manufacturers like to aim for the big fat bullseye. Get the most points with one dart. As the technology matures or specific markets shrink, manufacturers start to look beyond the low-hanging fruit. Industrial applications for GPS and LBS have been somewhat ignored, but are now being targeted. Applications where GPS is used in harsh environments or industrially sensitive applications require a much higher level of integration and costly casehardened technology. A case in point is Garmin’s aviation product line. Early on, both Trimble and Magellan had aviation product lines, but gave them up due to the extensive certification required and the long time to market required to field these products. Garmin founders, on the other hand, came from a background in flight avionics systems and were able to factor the timelines and understand the process. Garmin has a successful niche industrial aviation business today based on that experience. In 2008 I predict we’ll see more effort from GPS manufacturers to spend a certain amount of their R&D budgets to get back into the more complex areas of GPS such as military products, automated guidance systems, inventory control, and all those areas that lie outside the bullseye. Soothsayer’s Salute. The market for GPS products is well diversified and getting more so by the month. 2008 will be another banner year. The crystal ball is out of steam for now. My hat’s off to the GPS industry professionals for their efforts in driving the markets in 2007 and creating many happy users. You rock. (Survey, continued from 59) last few years. However, just a couple of months ago NavCom announced hiring two sales people to be “responsible for achieving NavCom’s revenue and growth goals for GPS products and services in direct sales to military and government customers, system integrators, and OEMs.” There’s no doubt they have the capability to bring leading-edge GNSS technology to survey/construction. Several of the engineers at NavCom designed Leica’s early receivers. But NavCom has to partner with another company to reach the survey market. The receiver is only part of the solution. They need a software solution and a survey dealer network. Neither are easy, or inexpensive, to obtain. Septentrio. With a host of companies claiming to be receiver designers, it’s easy to lose track of Septentrio, a small Belgian company. But keep an eye on these folks. They are a likely candidate to become the next NovAtel: an OEM designer of highperformance GNSS technology to whomever is faced with a make-or-buy decision. They recently opened a U.S. office, led by a former NavCom sales executive. Sokkia. Sokkia obtains the lion’s share of their GNSS technology from NovAtel through their joint venture called Point, Inc. With Sokkia’s acquisition by Topcon and NovAtel’s by Leica, the joint venture just seems doomed. The reasons for its forming have waned. Sokkia still needs GNSS technology. If the Topcon deal goes south, then they may turn to Javad or Hemisphere or Septentrio or someone else. They do have a solid, world-wide dealer network. In this industry, that’s not easy to obtain. X-Factor. There are lots of moving pieces in the GNSS puzzle these days, and 2008 won’t disappoint. Companies will be acquired, deals will be cut, and alliances will be formed. The detail of who does what remains to be seen but one thing is for certain: the X-factor, not the technology, will call the dance in 2008. www.gpsworld.com http://www.gpsworld.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of GPS World - January 2008

GPS - January 2008 Contents Out in Front Expert Advice The Money-Go-Round u-Nav Latest Acquisition Apples to Apples Global SBAS 2008 GPS Receiver Survey Advertisers Index & Company Directory The Manufacturer's Road Year of the Who Working Indoor Up and Down Good, Better, Best Marketplace Classifieds Seen + Heard

GPS World - January 2008

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