Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - (Page 36) 36 News H&MM November 17, 2008 | HotelMotel.com LIIC’s mission The Lodging Industry Investment Council (www.liic.ws) is the premier think tank in the hotel industry. Its members include a diverse mix of 70 influential leaders in the real estate and finance fields. Membership is by invitation. Co-chairmen: Mike Cahill, president and founder of HREC—Hospitality Real Estate Counselors; Sean Hennessey, CEO of Lodging Investment Advisors; and Jim Butler, partner, Jeffer Mangels Butler & Marmaro Mike Cahill Jim Butler Sean Hennessey Downturn Continued from page 1 All members agreed consumer confidence is down as a result of this fall’s bailout activity and the stock market ups and downs that accompanied it. Even before September’s events, some members reported evidence of weak travel. “I did some research this summer on travel to New York City, and international travelers represent 19 [percent] to 20 percent of NYC roomnights but account for 53 percent of the spend,” said Tom Naughton, SVP of acquisitions at Sunstone Hotel Investors. “So the multiplier effect of European or London travelers going home without the empty suitcases they brought over filled with purchases … is pretty big.” Naughton said New York is an interesting city to analyze in terms of its dollar value for travelers and hotels. “We have 15 percent of our EBITDA in New York so it’s something I track pretty carefully,” he said. “If the dollar does move like it did, up 10 percent against the euro and the pound recently … you could have a double whammy in New York if the dollar goes up and you have a corporate downturn.” The inflation scenario LIIC participants wondered aloud Cheryl Boyer, president of Lodging Advisors, and Douglas Dreher, president of The Hotel Group, shared a laugh at the Lodging Industry Investment Council meeting held in September. how the federal government’s bailout plan and growing deficit might affect inflation. “I wish I could calculate it because we’re already double what [the Consumer Price Index] is,” said Chad Crandell, president of Capital Hotel Management. “How could energy and food prices go up as much as they have and inflation still be at around 3.2 percent? I think the fundamental inflation rate for the average consumer is significantly greater than what CPI is being reported at.” “If you were buying a hotel today, how would you factor in inflation increases?” asked Mike Cahill, president and founder of HREC–Hospitality Real Estate Counselors. “Short term, I don’t think we have inflation issues,” said Rob Stiles, EVP, principal and head of the Western region for Cushman & Wakefield Sonnenblick Goldman. “I think inflation is going down, short term. Commodity prices are falling, and I think that’s going to have more of a correcting impact on inflation. Long term, we have to have more inflation. There’s going to be too many competing users without it. So either we have sort of a continuing credit crisis or there’s a bigger money supply,” Stile said. Notes vs. real estate deals. Reality is setting in.” “The sellers of notes are much William Reynolds, manmore motivated than the sellers aging director and chief acquiof property,” said Patrick Dem- sitions officer of Thayer Lodging, managing director of East- ing Group, agreed, pointing out dil Secured. “Let’s just cut to the Thayer Lodging’s normal buying chase. Sellers of paper for the most behavior. “Thayer’s never been a part are selling for a reaterribly aggressive buyson—they have to raise MORE COVERAGE: er,” he said. “There’s no liquidity. reason to buy anything. For more on “You have perform- September’s LIIC We’re looking at a lot … ing paper, sub-per- meeting, see “The but we’re going to be in rate debate” in the forming paper, non- Nov. 3 issue. this stasis period for a performing paper, all while.” sorts,” Deming said, adding most Amid the United States’ curof the paper his company sees still rent scenario, international invesis performing. tors are starting to emerge, some “How many people are going LIIC members noted. But the back and trying to buy their own question remains as to what curpaper?” Cahill asked the group. rent asset-holders will do in the “Everybody,” said Steve Kisiel- long run. ica, principal of Lodging Capital “We all learned how to play Partners. “We closed on our first musical chairs in first grade. That’s piece of paper from an existing what we’ve been doing the last few loan, and it’s a 30-plus [internal years, when there were a lot of rate of return] for a not-bad place quick trades,” Stiles said. “You got in the capital stack,” he said. into a deal, re-flagged and got out. In terms of property buys, most There was no value to staying in of the group was silent about ac- a deal.” quisitions because they’re not hap“There are a lot of people holdpening at the rate they were a year ing hotel assets that don’t want to and a half ago. be long-term [owners] and they’ll “We haven’t bought a hotel in have to hold on to them for three to two years, but we’ve tried heav- five years,” Deming said. “There’s ily over the last six months,” said going to be a big wave of transacBernie Siegel, principal with KSL tions 24 to 36 months out.” Capital Partners. “No one’s doing sricca@questex.com Chad Crandell, [from left], president, Capital Hotel Management; Jeff McKee, managing director, Premier Capital Associates; and Bernie Siegel, principal with KSL Capital Partners, discussed how the recent economic downturn may affect the industry. H&MM | STEPHANIE RICCA CIRCLE NO. 114 H&MM | STEPHANIE RICCA http://www.liic.ws http://www.HotelMotel.com http://www.liic.ws http://www.kenyonappliances.com http://www.kenyonappliances.com
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 Contents Muted Mood at First HHOA Conference Concord Steps Up Management Plans, Goals DePaul Launches Hospitality School Perspective Legal FAQ Consultant’s Corner Maintenance Doctor Family Business Management Trends What Women Want Training Trends Marketing Matters HotelWorld Update Trends and Stats Top Design Firms Property-management Systems Transportation Services Laundry Equipment Marketplace Ad/Editorial Index Classifieds Checking Out Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 (Page 1) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 (Page 2) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Contents (Page 3) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - DePaul Launches Hospitality School (Page 4) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - DePaul Launches Hospitality School (Page 5) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Perspective (Page 6) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Perspective (Page 7) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 8) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 9) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Maintenance Doctor (Page 10) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Maintenance Doctor (Page 11) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Family Business (Page 12) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Family Business (Page 13) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Management Trends (Page 14) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Management Trends (Page 15) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - What Women Want (Page 16) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - What Women Want (Page 17) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Training Trends (Page 18) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Training Trends (Page 19) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Marketing Matters (Page 20) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - HotelWorld Update (Page 21) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Trends and Stats (Page 22) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Trends and Stats (Page 23) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 24) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 25) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 26) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 27) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 28) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Top Design Firms (Page 29) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Property-management Systems (Page 30) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Property-management Systems (Page 31) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Property-management Systems (Page 32) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Transportation Services (Page 33) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Transportation Services (Page 34) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Transportation Services (Page 35) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Transportation Services (Page 36) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Transportation Services (Page 37) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Laundry Equipment (Page 38) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Marketplace (Page 39) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 40) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 41) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 42) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 43) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 44) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 45) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 46) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 47) Hotel & Motel Management - November 17, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 48)
For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.