Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - (Page 32) 32 News H&MM December 8 , 2008 | HotelMotel.com www.HotelMotel.com/digital_edition Panelists Continued from page 1 During the U.S. Lodging Industry Summit Panel, Mark Lomanno, president of Smith Travel Research, said STR forecasts RevPAR will rise 0.4 percent over 2007’s year-end value. STR predicts it will drop 2.5 percent in 2009, and increase 1.5 percent in 2010. PricewaterhouseCoopers’ di- rector Warren Marr predicted 2008 will finish with RevPAR down 0.8 percent, and in 2009 RevPAR will decrease 5.8 percent. Panelists agreed that average daily rate drops precipitate RevPAR declines. “Now, one out of four properties in the U.S. is reporting declining room rates and declining occupancy,” Lomanno said. “Lowering room rates in this environment does not work.” To that end, Lomanno said STR is “the only group thinking ADR will be positive in 2009.” PwC now is forecasting 2008 to finish with an ADR up 3 percent and predicts 2009 will be down 2.4 percent. It all comes back to rate, panelists said. “If you look back at 20012003, we had the perfect storm from a rate perspective,” said Douglas Shifflet, chairman and CEO for D.K. Shifflet & Associates. “Now all the brands have rate parity with transparent sites. This time, the bigger concern is that the unemployment estimates are much more severe and elongated. This time we’re looking at five quarters of unemployment rates above 7 percent.” Lomanno again warned against rate cutting. “In an upcycle, hotels follow the behavior of the best performer,” he said. “In a down market, that flips and they follow the first guy who cuts and runs.” Don’t forget your BUSINESS CARDS. In fact, bring a lot of them. AH&LA understands AT A GLANCE The Americas Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) Location: Hilton San Diego Bayfront, San Diego, CA Dates: January 26-28, 2009 No. Attendees: 3,000+ Atmosphere: fast-paced, down-tobusiness the meaning of networking, and by attending our educational and strategic events, you’ll be in direct contact with industry drivers in a setting that breeds meaningful interaction. The Americas Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) Industry buyers, sellers, and investors never miss this integral conference for making contacts and wheeling deals. Signature feature: Every industry leader is present, ready to build key relationships and establish strategic partnerships. Networking Opportunities: Speed Meet; receptions; exclusive parties Peter Yesawich, chairman and CEO of Ypartnership, pointed out trends for smart rate cutting. “Where discounting works is in the discretionary part of your business—leisure travel and the meetings component,” he said. “Rate cutting has to be applied selectively.” On the construction pipeline side, Pat Ford, president of Lodging Econometrics, reported that at the end of the third quarter of 2008, the construction pipeline had 5,650 projects in it, comprising 740,000 rooms. Those numbers were down from the second quarter, which Ford called the cycle’s peak. “Construction starts have declined over the past three quarters, and in the third quarter, 350 projects were canceled,” he said. He compared 2007’s total real estate transactions—3,325—to the 2008 year to date number of 827 transactions. Lomanno forecasted a quick comeback whenever it happens. “Whenever the recovery comes, it will happen quickly,” he said. “We have nothing wrong systematically, like the airline and auto industries do,” Ford said. CEO Leadership panel At the CEO Leadership Panel, Jackson Hsieh, managing director and global head of real estate, lodging and leisure group at UBS Investment Bank, said refinancing is a big concern. “In the U.S. alone there were $120 billion in hotel loans secured on Wall Street. They’ve got to fix this financing market because these loans come due, you can’t pay it back and you have to go through the foreclosure process.” Steve Joyce, president and CEO of Choice Hotels International was the panel’s optimist. “Third quarter, Choice Hotels were down one-sixth [revenue per available room]. That’s not good but it’s not the end of the world. Then you had the onslaught of very bad financial news, compounded by our 24/7 cable network scenario where people fed on fear, saying the world is ending, seeing investments cut in half and everyone hyperventilated. You’re going to have a trough, the question is how deep. … When the world takes a breath, things will settle out.” sricca@questex.com Additional reporting by Chris Crowell. AH&LA Legislative Action Summit (LAS) Passionate hoteliers gather in the nation’s capital to lobby the new Obama Administration on issues impacting their bottom line, including Card Check, H-2B Visas, and Travel and Tourism issues. Signature feature: You get to personally meet and hear from Members of Congress and have your most pressing questions answered on the spot. Networking Opportunities: Opening reception; lobbying on the Hill; closing reception AH&LA Legislative Action Summit (LAS) Location: Mandarin Oriental, Washington, D.C. Dates: March 16-17, 2009 No. Attendees: 250+ Atmosphere: exciting, powerful AH&LA Summer Summit Property owners, general mangers, and other decision-making executives discover the trends, forecasts, and, strategies for building a competitive advantage amidst economic setbacks and eco-friendly mandates. Signature Feature: Over a dozen committees meet to discuss specific industry topics, and Stars of the Industry award winners are honored. Networking Opportunities: Receptions; dine-around; membership issues forum AH&LA Summer Summit Location: Hilton Chicago, Chicago, IL Dates: June 23-24, 2008 No. Attendees: 250+ Atmosphere: casual, intimate For more information visit www.ahla.com or call 1-800-252-2462. CIRCLE NO. 101 CIRCLE NO. 101 http://www.HotelMotel.com http://www.HotelMotel.com/digital_edition http://www.ahla.com http://www.ahla.com
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 Contents Best Western Sets Spending Strategy Courtyard Turns 25, Unveils New Lobby New Division of MGM Goes Beyond Gaming Perspective Legal FAQ Marketing Matters Family Business On Finance AAHOA Update Satisfaction Trends HotelWorld Update Consultant’s Corner Trends & Stats IH/M&RS Editors’ Choice Award Winners Insurance Ad/Editorial Index Marketplace Classifieds Checking Out Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 (Page 1) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 (Page 2) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Contents (Page 3) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - New Division of MGM Goes Beyond Gaming (Page 4) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - New Division of MGM Goes Beyond Gaming (Page 5) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Perspective (Page 6) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Perspective (Page 7) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Marketing Matters (Page 8) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Marketing Matters (Page 9) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Family Business (Page 10) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Family Business (Page 11) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - On Finance (Page 12) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - On Finance (Page 13) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - AAHOA Update (Page 14) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - AAHOA Update (Page 15) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Satisfaction Trends (Page 16) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - HotelWorld Update (Page 17) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 18) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 19) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 20) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Consultant’s Corner (Page 21) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Trends & Stats (Page 22) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Trends & Stats (Page 23) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Trends & Stats (Page 24) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Trends & Stats (Page 25) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - IH/M&RS Editors’ Choice Award Winners (Page 26) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - IH/M&RS Editors’ Choice Award Winners (Page 27) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 28) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 29) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 30) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 31) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 32) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Insurance (Page 33) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 34) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Marketplace (Page 35) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 36) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 37) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 38) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 39) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 40) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Classifieds (Page 41) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 42) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 43) Hotel & Motel Management - December 8, 2008 - Checking Out (Page 44)
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