Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - (Page 18)

H&MM March 2009 | HotelWorldNetwork.com 18 Trends & Stats BY R. MARK WOODWORTH “The low points will be very low, and they likely will be realized some time this year.” Weakest markets Income decline 2008-2009 estimate City Miami Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Tampa, Fla. New York Salt Lake City Change -4.2% -3.7% -3.3% -3.3% -2.8% he economic turmoil that continues to rile market behavior has caused virtually all lodging performance measures to contract. Preliminary data from Smith Travel Research for the fourth quarter of 2008 shows signiﬁcant declines in demand, occupancy and, for the ﬁrst time since the second quarter of 2003, a year-over-year quarterly TAKEAWAY decrease in average daily rate. Regional income The PKF Hospitality and employment Research “Hotel Horizons” statistics inﬂuence forecast issued in mid-January lodging demand. calls for a dismal 2009. The disconnect between the business cycle (demand is expected to drop 2.8 percent) and the property cycle (the net supply increase should be about 2.9 percent) will lead to a decline in occupancy of 5.5 percent (to 57.2 percent) in 2009. This, in turn, will lead to the largest annual decline in average daily rate (down 4.6 percent) since STR began tracking the industry in 1987. Expectations vary as we look across the 50 U.S. markets tracked in the PKFHR lodging universe. Two predictors Low points to come in ’09, but recovery not far behind T of movements in lodging demand, and therefore industry performance, are changes in total personal income and changes in total employment. Based on December 2008 forecasts from Moody’s Economy.com, 60 percent of these markets will experience income declines, and all but seven will see employment declines. Of these same 50 cities, 48 may realize occupancies in 2009 below their longrun average. Within this group, 17 will realize all-time record-low occupancies this year. Not all markets will experience ADR declines, but only New Orleans is expected to achieve a revenue per available room increase in 2009. However, we expect a majority of these markets to start realizing ADR and occupancy increases in Q1 or Q2 2010. Thus, the low points will be very low, and they likely will be realized some time this year. Fortunately, the beginning of the recovery will not be too far behind. hmm@questex.com Employment decline 2008-09 estimate City Miami Jacksonville, Fla. Tampa, Fla. Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Tucson, Ariz. Change -4.0% -3.8% -3.4% -2.9% -2.7% Source: Moody’s Economy.com Leading markets Change in RevPAR 2008-2010 estimate City New Orleans Pittsburgh Seattle San Francisco San Diego Change 0.2% -0.9% -1.3% -1.6% -3.4% R. Mark Woodworth is president of PKF Hospitality Research. Contact him at (404) 8421150 or mark.woodworth@pkfc.com. Source: PKF Hospitality Research Hotel Horizons® Markets with the lowest forecasted 2009 occupancy levels City Cleveland Detroit Cincinnati Indianapolis Columbus, Ohio Level 52.6% 53.5% 54.0% 55.3% 55.7% Change -5.1% -5.9% -4.7% -6.0% -5.4% Lagging markets Change in RevPAR 2008-2010 estimate City Miami Phoenix Orlando Fort Lauderdale, Fla. West Palm Beach, Fla. Change -12.9% -11.2% -11.1% -10.3% -9.9% Source: PKF Hospitality Research Hotel Horizons® Source: PKF Hospitality Research Hotel Horizons® U.S. lodging forecast* PKF Hospitality Research Forecast 2007 actual Occupancy Percent change Average daily rate Percent change Revenue per available room Percent change 63.1% -0.3% $103.93 6.1% $65.55 5.7% 2008 estimate 60.5% -3.6% $106.42 2.4% $64.38 -1.7% 2009 forecast 57.2% -5.5% $101.52 -4.6% $58.07 -9.8% 2010 forecast 57.4% 0.3% $102.54 1.0% $58.86 1.3% STR Long run average 62.7% 3.4% 3.4% Sources: PKF Hospitality Research, Smith Travel Research * Based on Q3 2007 actual data from STR and Moody’s Economy.com forecast as of 12/23/08 http://www.HotelWorldNetwork.com http://www.Economy.com http://www.Economy.com http://www.Economy.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009

Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 Contents News Perspective Green Focus Legally Speaking Franchise Law Sales Clinic Legal FAQ Trends & Stats Timeshare On Finance Management Companies Stuggle to Cut Costs While Keeping Guest Satisfaction Up Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart Hot Products Technology Marketplace Ad/Editorial Index Checking Out

Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009

Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 (Page Cover1) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 (Page Cover2) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Contents (Page 3) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - News (Page 4) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - News (Page 5) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Perspective (Page 6) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Perspective (Page 7) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Green Focus (Page 8) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Green Focus (Page 9) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Legally Speaking (Page 10) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Legally Speaking (Page 11) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Franchise Law (Page 12) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Franchise Law (Page 13) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Sales Clinic (Page 14) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Sales Clinic (Page 15) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Legal FAQ (Page 16) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Legal FAQ (Page 17) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Trends & Stats (Page 18) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Trends & Stats (Page 19) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Timeshare (Page 20) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Timeshare (Page 21) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - On Finance (Page 22) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - On Finance (Page 23) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Management Companies Stuggle to Cut Costs While Keeping Guest Satisfaction Up (Page 24) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Management Companies Stuggle to Cut Costs While Keeping Guest Satisfaction Up (Page 25) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 26) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 27) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 28) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 29) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 30) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 31) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 32) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 33) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 34) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 35) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Top Third-Party Management Companies Chart (Page 36) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Hot Products (Page 37) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 38) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 39) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 40) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 41) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 42) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Technology (Page 43) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Marketplace (Page 44) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Marketplace (Page 45) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Marketplace (Page 46) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Marketplace (Page 47) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 48) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 49) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 50) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 51) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 52) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Ad/Editorial Index (Page 53) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Checking Out (Page 54) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Checking Out (Page Cover3) Hotel & Motel Management - March 2009 - Checking Out (Page Cover4) 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