Home Media Magazine - February 16-22, 2009 - (Page 10) HIGH-DEF www.homemediamagazine.com Analysts Debate Blu-ray Significance By Erik Gruenwedel epending on who is talking, Blu-ray is either evolving steadily as the high-definition sequel to standard DVD or a pricey consumer electronics curiosity. J.P. Morgan analyst Imran Khan said he believes Blu-ray is unlikely to be a significant near-term catalyst for packaged-media sales going forward considering the economy. In a consumer survey conducted in December by a third-party vendor, just 62% of respondents were familiar with Blu-ray, and of those, more than 50% said they had no plans to buy a BD player in the next 12 months. This compared to 20% who indicated an interest in purchasing a player and 6% who already owned a BD player. Among BD consumers, 4% said they intended to replace their collection of standard DVD with Blu-ray once the titles became available. Khan said the fact that only 14% of BD consumers intended to replace their DVD libraries underscored his position. “The replacement of VHS libraries with DVD was a strong catalyst for the [home video] industry over the past decade,” Khan said in a research note. “For now, at least, it does not appear consumers intend to repeat the cycle with Blu-ray.” However, a separate study from SNL Kagan found that despite BD’s sluggish start, the next-generation highdefinition packaged-media format would attain nearly 60% market share in 2014 and generate $13.1 billion in revenue. The Monterey, Calif.-based research firm said BD market share would soar to 73.8%, or $15.6 billion in revenue by 2017. “Blu-ray will be the driving force behind the video retail market throughout the next decade,” said Wade Holden, analyst at SNL Kagan. “The current economic climate, however, will slow the growth of this new format and likely keep it from reaching the heights that it may have [reached] in better times.” Indeed, J.P. Morgan analyst Khan said his consumer study found price to be the primary deterrent to wider consumer adoption of Blu-ray. He said 42% of respondents would consider BD if the price rivaled DVD, even in the current economy. In a comparison of the top 50 BD and standard-DVD movies on Amazon, Khan found the average price for a new BD release to be $23.90 compared to $17.91 for DVD. Library titles averaged $20.23 for BD and $10.66 for DVD. The analyst determined that the av- erage 33% price premium for Blu-ray movies over DVD was actually 29% on a weighted-average basis when factoring that the most in-demand releases such as The Dark Knight, Wall-E, Iron Man and Transformers in BD were MGM RECRUITS FANS priced just 12% above DVD. FOR ‘STARGATE’ COVER “We expect Blu-ray discs to drive some incremental sales, but think it’s By John Latchem unlikely their contribution will drive GM Home Entertainment is giving significant out-performance in the fans a chance to design the cover coming 12 months,” Khan said. art for an upcoming “Stargate M REPORT: HDMI EXPANDS BEYOND HIGH-DEF TVS By Erik Gruenwedel W MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS FAMILIAR WITH BLU-RAY I Familiar, don’t plan to buy in the next 12 months 36% 20% 6% 6% 32% I Thinking of buying in the next 12 months I Own a Blu-ray player I Never heard of Blu-ray I Heard of it, not sure what it is Source: J.P. Morgan Internet & Media Team 2008 Consumer Survey ith market penetration for HDMI ports in high-definition televisions approaching 100%, the interface is rapidly expanding beyond TV to include settop boxes, DVD and Blu-ray players, and mobile PCs, according to a new report. Scottsdale, Ariz.-based research firm In-Stat said HDMI-enabled product shipments will increase at an annual rate of 23% from 2007 to 2012. Portable electronic devices, such as camcorders, digital still cameras and portable media players will be among the emerging categories to watch, according to In-Stat. HDMI adoption in mobile computers is estimated at nearly a quarter of all machines shipped in 2008. IPTV settop boxes will see the highest adoption among pay-TV set-top boxes, growing to 85% penetration and 17.6 million boxes by 2012. HDMI penetration in portable media players will approach 10% by 2012. Rising adoption of HDMI and display interfaces will negatively impact digital video interface (DVI) adoption. DVI is a video connector aimed at maximizing the picture quality of digital-display devices such as digital projectors and LCD screens. DVI-enabled product shipments will decline at an annual rate of 30% through 2012. “The rapid escalation of HDMI in standard-definition and blue-laser DVD players and recorders is directly related to HDMI’s success in [digital televisions],” said In-Stat analyst Brian O’Rourke in a statement. “Set-top boxes, which are traditionally slow to adopt new interfaces, are also increasingly embracing HDMI.” Atlantis” best-of compilation to be released on Blu-ray Disc. Through Feb. 28, www.StargateHub.com will let fans upload their own art or work with provided templates. The top designs will be selected by the “Stargate Atlantis” producers, with the winner announced in April and showcased on the Blu-ray release this summer. MGM packaged media is distributed by 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. The top 10 episodes as chosen by the fans 1. “Enemy at the Gate” (Episode 100, Season 5 — Series Finale) 2. “Rising” (Episodes 1-2, Season 1 — Pilot) 3. “The Siege” (Episodes 19-21, Seasons 1-2) 4. “Tao of Rodney” (Episode 54, Season 3) 5. “Be All My Sins Remember’d” (Episode 71, Season 4) 6. “The Shrine” (Episode 86, Season 5) 7. “McKay and Mrs. Miller” (Episode 48, Season 3) 8. “Vegas” (Episode 99, Season 5) 9. “Midway” (Episode 77, Season 4) 10. “First Strike” (Episode 60, Season 3) TOP 20 HIGH-DEF BLU-R AY D ISC Week ended February 8, 2009 LABEL INDEX* TOP 20 HIGH-DEF B D TI TL E S HA R E Percentage of Sales Per Title vs DVD* Week ended February 8, 2009 LABEL PERCENT TITLE TITLE B LU- R AY D I S C CO M I NG U P STREETING Body of Lies Warner Street Date: 2/17 Changeling Universal Street Date: 2/17 Gandhi Sony Pictures Street Date: 2/17 High School Musical 3 Disney Street Date: 2/17 The Midnight Meat Train Lionsgate Street Date: 2/17 The Passion of the Christ Fox Street Date: 2/17 Quarantine Sony Pictures Street Date: 2/17 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa Zack and Miri Make a Porno The Dark Knight Nick & Norah’s Infinite Playlist Eagle Eye Space Buddies Iron Man Transformers Max Payne Lakeview Terrace The Bourne Trilogy The Secret Life of Bees Pineapple Express Pride and Glory Friday the 13th Planet Earth: The Complete Series Wanted Hulk vs. RockNRolla Tropic Thunder *Units sold compared to No. 1 title Paramount/DW 100.00 Genius/Weinstein 64.61 Warner 43.55 Sony Pictures 27.37 Paramount/DW 25.10 Disney 23.56 Paramount 23.10 Paramount/DW 20.18 Fox 19.69 Sony Pictures 19.41 Universal 19.32 Fox 18.88 Sony Pictures 17.36 Warner 15.37 Paramount 14.69 BBC Video 12.85 Universal 12.68 Lionsgate 12.36 Warner 12.21 Paramount/DW 11.96 Source: Nielsen VideoScan First Alert data 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Transformers Iron Man Eagle Eye The Dark Knight RockNRolla Wanted Afro Samurai: Resurrection The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Babylon A.D. Appaloosa Righteous Kill Rent: Filmed Live on Broadway Pride and Glory Bangkok Dangerous Hulk vs. Wall-E Pineapple Express Kung Fu Panda Max Payne Zack and Miri Make a Porno *Concurrent DVD & Blu-ray releases only Paramount/DW Paramount Paramount/DW Warner Warner Universal Funimation Universal Fox Warner Anchor Bay Sony Pictures Warner Lionsgate Lionsgate Disney Sony Pictures Paramount/DW Fox Genius/Weinstein 41.29% 40.85% 24.99% 24.78% 21.86% 20.45% 18.53% 18.18% 17.92% 16.57% 16.43% 15.34% 14.46% 13.59% 13.21% 13.12% 12.77% 12.47% 12.15% 11.45% Source: Nielsen VideoScan First Alert data Home Media Magazine February 16–22, 2009 http://www.homemediamagazine.com http://www.StargateHub.com
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