Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - (Page 14) HIGH-DEF www.homemediamagazine.com Cost, Content and Awareness Key to Blu-ray Disc Adoption By Paul Erickson NEWS ANALYSIS Blu-ray won the battle with HD DVD early this year, and consumer awareness of the technology is on the rise as the overall installed base of HD households grows. Despite this, high-definition disc adoption is being squeezed between upconverting DVD players, digital video-on-demand and the rise of digital video being delivered online. Standalone Blu-ray Disc player sales have trailed standard DVD sales during their life cycles. While Blu-ray has prevailed over HD DVD, the battle against competing sources of digital video in the home has just begun. What will be the key factors that will determine Blu-ray’s fate? Cost, consumer demand and awareness, and content availability will help determine how long Bluray will take to supplant DVD, and how it will fare against newer, nonphysical methods of delivering digital video to the consumer. A major factor is cost. What are consumers willing to pay for a Blu-ray player? Blu-ray players REPORT: BD SALES TO TOP DVD By Erik Gruenwedel sell for about five times the cost of upconverting DVD players. As this differential decreases substantially over the next two years, mainstream consumer interest will improve. Another factor is consumer demand and awareness. Consumers do not necessarily dislike Blu-ray, but many simply aren’t aware of the benefits Blu-ray provides. Still, the mainstream consumer will eventually invest in Blu-ray, but it will require more exposure, education, and price drops. Content is king in the Blu-ray realm as well. Some consumers are hesitant to jump into Blu-ray given what is perceived as a limited availability of titles. The number of Blu-ray titles available still pales in comparison to the massive library of standard DVD titles available. Mass consumer adoption will occur when there is an enticing combination of consumer awareness, a sufficiently large and appealing content library, mainstream-affordable hardware and software pricing, and a higher level of 1080p HDTV penetration. This environment will take time to arrive, but is nearly guaranteed to occur. Video-on-demand and digital download growth have yet to meet expectations, but are expected to gain traction over the next two years. It will become increasingly important in the near term for the Blu-ray camp to firmly position Blu-ray Disc within the mix of an increasing number of ways to consume digital video, including DVD. Will any of these methods prove superior for the consumer and kill off one or more of the others? Or will all these methods of consuming digital video coexist? It’s not likely the industry will have a clear picture of how this mix will shake out for at least another one to two years. S ales of Blu-ray Discs in the United States are expected to total 45 million units this year (up 400% year-over-year) and equal to 61% of all packaged media (DVD) unit sales by 2012, according to a new report. Industry experts expect a banner fourth quarter, with BD sales already accounting for 5% to 6% of major title sales, according to London-based Futuresource Consulting. “I would be amazed if we don’t see a Blu-ray player in the U.S. at or below $250 by the end of the year,” said Futuresource analyst Jack Wetherill. The report hinted at a dearth of catalog titles released thus far on Blu-ray, with the industry looking at Warner’s initiative to cut catalog prices. The report concluded that by 2012, upwards of 50% of all consumer spending on packaged media will be on Blu-ray Disc. 2012 SELLTHROUGH RETAIL VALUE: DVD VS. BLU-RAY DISC 100% 61% 75% 50% 25% 0% 39% 56% 50% 54% 61% 57% 44% 50% 46% 39% 43% U.S. U.K. FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN I Blu-ray I DVD Source: Futuresource Consulting Ltd Paul Erickson is the director of DVD and HD market research at DisplaySearch. I BEST BUY, CIRCUIT CITY BOW DIGITAL TV CAMPAIGNS DisplaySearch is holding its sixth HDTV Conference in Los Angeles Sept. 1517. For more, visit www.displaysearch. com/hdtv. Best Buy and Circuit City separately launched programs aimed at educating consumers about the switch from analog to digital over-the-air TV broadcasts Feb. 17, 2009. Best Buy bowed www.askablueshirt.com, where consumers can access its home theater experts, and launched an interactive application on Facebook. Circuit City opened a toll-free telephone contact center to answer questions and redeem government coupons to purchase converter boxes. The contact center can be reached at 888-280-9382. – Erik Gruenwedel ing players (priced from $79.99) by letting users manually upgrade the detail, color and contrast of their DVDs. As with most upconverting players, By Erik Gruenwedel latest effort to combat Blu-ray Disc. the XD-E500 increases picture resoluoshiba launched a new upToshiba, which backed the failed HD tion from 480i/p to 1080p. converting DVD player some DVD format, said the $149.99 XD-E500 Louis Masses, director of product believe marks the company’s player differs from its other upconvert- planning, Toshiba America Consumer Toshiba Bows ‘Enhanced Picture’ Upconverting DVD Player T Products, said the XDE isn’t meant to compete with Blu-ray since it isn’t a native 1080p high-def player. Andy Parsons, SVP of advanced product development at Pioneer Electronics and chair of the BDA promotion committee for the United States, said DVD continues to have a strong market pres- ence, with hardware companies refining their standard-definition products. “But DVD is not a high-definition format, no matter what is done to the output signal,” Parsons said. Toshiba plans an extensive consumer campaign, including a Web site that launched last week. TOP 20 HIGH-DEF BLU-R AY D ISC Week ended August 17, 2008 LABEL INDEX TOP 20 HIGH-DEF B D M A R K E T S HA R E Percentage of Sales Per Title vs. DVD Week ended August 17, 2008 LABEL PERCENT TITLE TITLE B LU- R AY D I S C CO M I NG U P STREETING Heroes: Season 1 Universal Heroes: Season 2 Universal Postal Vivendi Redbelt Sony Pictures The Secret Image What Happens In Fox Street Date: 8/26 Street Date: 8/26 Street Date: 8/26 Street Date: 8/26 Street Date: 8/26 Vegas Street Date: 8/26 PREBOOKING You Don’t Mess With the Zohan Sony Pictures Pre: 9/4, Street: 10/7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Batman Begins The Bank Job 21 10,000 B.C. Jumper Casino Royale Top Gun I Am Legend Vantage Point Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay Planet Earth: The Complete Series Dark City Stargate: Continuum The Bucket List Never Back Down Doomsday Black Hawk Down Nim’s Island 300 Starship Troopers Warner Lionsgate Sony Pictures Warner Fox Sony Pictures Paramount Warner Sony Pictures New Line BBC Video New Line Fox/MGM Warner Summit Universal Sony Pictures Fox Warner Sony Pictures 100.00 71.86 54.60 52.49 45.06 44.84 44.49 43.42 39.58 38.26 33.50 32.38 30.92 30.01 29.78 29.68 27.67 27.21 26.52 25.68 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Dark City Starship Troopers Top Gun Black Hawk Down Planet Earth: The Complete Series I Am Legend 300 Jumper Batman Begins Doomsday 10,000 B.C. Casino Royale Vantage Point The Bank Job The Bucket List Never Back Down Stargate: Continuum 21 Harold & Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay Nim’s Island New Line Sony Pictures Paramount Sony Pictures BBC Video Warner Warner Fox Warner Universal Warner Sony Pictures Sony Pictures Lionsgate Warner Summit Fox/MGM Sony Pictures New Line Fox 53.99% 44.23% 38.71% 33.78% 31.23% 28.79% 24.39% 24.37% 23.10% 22.70% 21.54% 20.21% 17.16% 16.32% 12.24% 10.06% 8.00% 7.58% 6.20% 2.34% Source: Nielsen VideoScan First Alert Source: Nielsen VideoScan First Alert 14 Home Media Magazine August 24–30, 2008 http://www.homemediamagazine.com http://www.displaysearch.com/hdtv http://www.displaysearch.com/hdtv http://www.askablueshirt.com
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 Contents News High-Def News Electronic Delivery News TV DVD Fourth Quarter/Holiday Reviews Pipeline Research Top 20 DVD Sellers Top 20 Rentals and Top 10 Charts Just Announced Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page Cover1) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page Cover2) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 1) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 2) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 3) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 4) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 5) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 (Page 6) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Contents (Page 7) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Contents (Page 8) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Contents (Page 9) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - News (Page 10) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - News (Page 11) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - News (Page 12) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - News (Page 13) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - High-Def News (Page 14) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - High-Def News (Page 15) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Electronic Delivery News (Page 16) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - TV DVD (Page 17) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Fourth Quarter/Holiday (Page 18) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Fourth Quarter/Holiday (Page 19) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Fourth Quarter/Holiday (Page 20) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Fourth Quarter/Holiday (Page 21) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 22) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 23) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 24) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 25) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 26) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Reviews (Page 27) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Pipeline (Page 28) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Pipeline (Page 29) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Top 20 DVD Sellers (Page 30) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Top 20 Rentals and Top 10 Charts (Page 31) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Top 20 Rentals and Top 10 Charts (Page 32) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Top 20 Rentals and Top 10 Charts (Page 33) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Just Announced (Page 34) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Just Announced (Page 35) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Just Announced (Page 36) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Just Announced (Page Cover3) Home Media Magazine - August 24, 2008 - Just Announced (Page Cover4)
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