Uptime Magazine - October/November 2008 - (Page 59)

or review the 20% of their known problem components that they believe cause 80% of all of their plant problems. I wholeheartedly endorse all of these measures but let me be very clear; these betterment techniques are not RCM. vulnerabilities remaining unidentified until an unwanted event does occur. Real-world RCM is all about finding those vulnerabilities before they can occur and result in an unwanted consequence of failure.”1 It’s The Unexpected It has been proven over and over and over that the vast majority of major disasters that occur… that were not due to either acts of nature, human error, or sheer negligence… were caused either by equipment failures whose consequence of failure was unexpected and never analyzed, or from components which were incorrectly analyzed to be runto-failure. The disasters caused by these two reasons are “surprises” because they were totally unknown, unexpected, and unanalyzed. In this light, think about the following statement……. “Plant reliability and safety is directly related to the existing vulnerabilities that have NOT yet been identified because the failure consequences surrounding those vulnerabilities have not yet occurred. Shortcuts in the RCM process will most likely result in those plant RCM And The Sub-Prime Mortgage Fiasco Now that we have a better understanding of what RCM is and what it is not, what does all of this have to do with the sub-prime mortgage fiasco? Can you see how the above quotation can be directly compared to the vulnerabilities that existed in the sub-prime mortgage market? Can you see how shortcuts in the mortgage application process, such as verifiable income statements and job validation not being required, contributed to the debacle? How about the wishful thinking that, through some uninterrupted string of luck, home prices would continue to escalate indefinitely? Can you see how the absence of ascertaining the real vulnerabilities, such as overstating the inherent value assessment and understating the inherent risk of the mortgages that lenders wrote, resulted in a catastrophic failure of the investment banking industry? The vulnerabilities that existed on Wall Street, prior to the mortgage meltdown, are eerily, yet specifically similar to the vulnerabilities that existed prior to the countless number of plant catastrophes that have occurred previously, and, in fact, vulnerabilities which currently exist in many plants and facilities today! What can we in the reliability community learn from the mistakes that were made in the financial community? It is very easy to fall into the mind-set of cruising right along on a wave of “Reliability Nirvana”. What do I mean by this? What I mean is that the plant or facility is humming along just fine without any significant problems. There have been no calamities recently; there have been no explosions, no fires, no fatalities, and no negative front page headlines or litigation concerns. So how does this Nirvana continue? It usually continues on a prolonged streak of luck. But, at some point in time that luck will run out. Quite often, plant managers know that all is not right. However, the inertia of the status quo becomes too great to overcome and they www.uptimemagazine.com 59 http://www.mobiusinstitute.com http://www.mobiusinstitute.com http://www.uptimemagazine.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Uptime Magazine - October/November 2008

Uptime Magazine - October/November 2008 Contents Upfront Upclose: An Asset Management Oasis in the Desert Information Technology: Streamlining Through Simplicity Lubrication: Phases for Framing a Solid Foundation Infrared: Do Your Homework Before You Buy Maintenance Management: Get It Together by Getting Together Motor Testing: Key Elements in Motor Decision Making Precision Maintenance: Shedding Some Light on Tolerances Reliability: RCM & the Mortgage Meltdown Ultrasound: A Multidimensional Tool Vibration: The Whirling Pump Mystery, Solved with ODS Upgrade: Are You Looking in the Right Place for Your Wear Debris?

Uptime Magazine - October/November 2008

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