Housing Giants - April 10, 2008 - (Page 14)

MARKET usually rebounds pretty quickly, as shown in the chart on page 12. The regions that were once considered to be more speculative are the places that have seen the greatest slowing in construction activity. From the peak level in September 2005, our rollup of regional data shows that permit levels have fallen the fastest in the Florida and California markets, with declines of more than 60 percent or more (the hard-hit Southwest Florida market is down more than 80 percent). Much of the rest of the county has witnessed permit declines in the 40-60 percent range in that time, with only the Carolinas, Georgia, the Gulf states and Southern Texas faring better, as the chart above shows. Clearly, all markets have been affected. (The data in the chart 14 HOUSING GIANTS.4.10.08 however is not seasonally adjusted; if it were, we would expect the declines to be even greater.) CONCLUSION The dramatic run-up in single-family construction during the last up-cycle has resulted in a substantial correction in permit activity and it will result in a dramatic change in the competitive environment, with large builders picking up market share until startup companies or recapitalized existing companies begin to compete again. HG John Burns helps many of the largest companies in the industry with strategy and monitoring market conditions. He can be reached at jburns@realestateconsulting.com. WWW.HOUSINGGIANTS.COM http://WWW.HOUSINGGIANTS.COM

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Housing Giants - April 10, 2008 Contents Viewpoint News and Moves Market CEO Spotlight The New Housing Demographics

Housing Giants - April 10, 2008

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