Housing Giants - August 11, 2008 - (Page 16) market enter the downturn in housing continue to experience rising listings levels, we have seen listings declining in a number of markets during a time of year when seasonal factors suggest they should be rising. These seasonal factors make it difficult to compare listings levels from one month to the next, but a year-over-year comparison, as shown in the map below, reveals pockets of metro areas where listings volumes are lower than 12 months prior. Declining listings volumes To view a map of year-over-year comparison are largely concentrated in California, Florida and the Midwest, while markets like Salt Lake, the Pacific Northwest and To view a map the Carolinas show the resale volume of rolling 12-month greatest yearover-year increases. In sum, the worst markets in the country don’t appear to be getting any worse. declined in many of the major markets in the last year. The areas highlighted in red are those where the decline has been the worst, and the areas highlighted in blue are those where the decline has been less dramatic in the last year. While it is nearly impossible to find a metro area where the annual resale sales volume is higher than one year ago, we are beginning to see some markets where the rolling 12-month totals are stabilizing at very low levels, suggesting that monthly sales activity is better than the same months last year. We a map this To view expect of show many more blue metro year-over-year comparison map to areas one year from now as sales volumes begin to bottom out. To view a map of rolling 12-month resale volume As a result of declining listings and increasing sales activity, the months of supply in certain metro areas is beginning to come down as well. However, stabilization is not likely to occur until demand and supply come back into balance at reasonable affordability levels. Although healthy resale inventory levels vary market-by-market, we believe a 4- to 6-month supply is appropriate. In some of the hardest-hit markets in Florida and SaleS VolumeS In some instances, declining listings volumes is a result of increased resale sales volumes — or at least a deceleration in the decline of sales activity. The map below shows how much the rolling 12-month resale volume has 16 HouSING GIaNTS.8.11.08 www.HouSINGGIaNTS.com http://www.housinggiants.com
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