Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - (Page 15) market By John Burns and Chris Porter, John Burns Real Estate Consulting Adopt the 20012005 perspective Location and Ltvs will drive when home building turns around to pre-boom prices. When We tell our clients that we expect prices to revert to 2002 or 2004 levels in many markets, they nod in agreement. When we tell them that we expect prices in their market to fall 30 percent, 40 percent or 50 percent, they think we are crazy. It is the same thing. We are forecasting a reversion to price levels of 2001 to 2005, varying by market as shown in the table on the next page that lists 20 of the largest housing markets in the country. Prices should not fall as dramatically in Texas, where the economy remains strong but new home oversupply and excessive subprime lending have wreaked havoc. Where almost everything went wrong — and where the economies are currently shedding jobs — such as in California, Arizona, Florida and Nevada, the price corrections will be much more severe. Location. Location. Location. Even more importantly to housing’s giants, however, is that the degree of decline and the timing of the recovery will be more dependent on the location within the metro area, rather than the metro area itself. The most desirable neighborhoods in the best school districts and near employment centers seem to be faring much better than other areas. Due to demographics, we favor locations in excellent high school districts. We made these projections before WWW.housinggiants.com 10.10.08.housing giants 15 http://www.realestateconsulting.com/home.aspx http://www.housinggiants.com
Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 Contents Viewpoint News & Moves Market CEO Spotlight Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 (Page Cover1) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 (Page Cover2) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 (Page 3) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 (Page 4) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Contents (Page 5) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Contents (Page 6) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Viewpoint (Page 7) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Viewpoint (Page 8) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Viewpoint (Page 9) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - News & Moves (Page 10) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - News & Moves (Page 11) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - News & Moves (Page 12) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - News & Moves (Page 13) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - News & Moves (Page 14) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Market (Page 15) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Market (Page 16) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - Market (Page 17) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 18) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 19) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 20) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 21) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 22) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 23) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 24) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 25) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 26) Housing Giants - October 10, 2008 - CEO Spotlight (Page 27)
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