Housing Giants - December 10, 2008 - (Page 14) market By John Burns, John Burns Real Estate Consulting This CyCle’s ReCoveRy Will Be DisTinCTive To find which market will recover Single-Family first, put on your consumer hat. Permits as % of Peak, 1980-2007 In the 1980s and 1990s, a diversified geographic footprint served builders such as Centex and Pulte very well. Note in the chart below how Texas fell from 1983 to 1989 while California did the opposite. in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Unfortunately, this downturn is national in nature, although Texas held up for one year longer than most other markets. There is nowhere to go where selling homes is easy. Looking at the multimarket states of California, Florida and Texas since 1980 (which together make up anywhere from one-third to onequarter of total single-family permits during this period) gives us a glimpse of how a diversification mentality might have proven to be affective during the 19781982 downturn, and even more dramatically in the 1986-1991 cycle. Since 1995, the housing markets have for a graph of single-family permits as percentage of peak, 1980-2007 dIversIty not helpIng rIght now The benefits of geographic diversity were of total single-family permits not lost onthroughregional players, such (1996 many 2012P) as D.R. Horton, KB Home, Lennar and K. Hovnanian, who expanded geographically for a graph 14 hoUsIng gIants.12.10.08 www.hoUsInggIants.com http://www.drhorton.com http://www.kbhome.com http://www.lennar.com http://www.khov.com http://www.khov.com http://www.housinggiants.com
For optimal viewing of this digital publication, please enable JavaScript and then refresh the page. If you would like to try to load the digital publication without using Flash Player detection, please click here.