Marine Log - February 2009 - (Page 18) ICE CLASS TANKERS one million GT and 25,600 lower berths added in 2008. The average vessel in the global cruise fleet is 18 years old and 43,000 GT with a capacity of 1,135 passengers. Six of the nine ships delivered in 2008 were larger than 100,000 GT, and had passenger capacity ranging from 2,030 to 3,300, marking 2008 as the first year in which all new ships were in the megaship category (> 2,000 passengers). Megaships account for 51% of the global berth capacity and 88% of the capacity delivered in the last five years. The smaller ships (less than 1,000 passengers) account for more than half of the existing number, but only 17% of current global passenger capacity. Notable additions to the fleet in 2008 were the first of Celebrity’s five new 122,000 GT Solstice-class ships, the third of Royal Caribbean’s 3,600-passenger Freedom-class (currently the world’s largest cruise ships that since introduction have averaged more than 4,100 passengers per sailing) and MSC Cruises’ largest ship to date, the 130,000 GT 3,300-passenger MSC Fantasia. The most notable deletion from the fleet during 2008 was the retirement in November of the Queen Elizabeth 2 amid much pomp and circumstance to become a floating hotel and museum at Dubai’s Palm Jumeirah. During the year, Norwegian Cruise Line completed withdrawal and reflagging of two of its three U.S.-flag ships, deploying the Norwegian Sky to Miami and the Norwegian Jade to Europe, leading to an expected 50% decline in the Hawaiian market. While the high level of concentration within the cruise industry at the parent company level is well understood, there is also similarly high concentration at the individual brand level. Royal CRUISE SHIP ORDERBOOK (As of January 1, 2009) CRUISE LINE/VESSEL AIDA Cruises AIDAbella AIDAblu unnamed unnamed American Cruise Line American Independence Carnival Cruise Lines Carnival Dream Carnival Magic Celebrity Cruises Celebrity Equinox Celebrity Eclipse unnamed unnamed Costa Cruises Costa Luminosa Costa Pacifica Costa Deliziosa unnamed unnamed Cunard Line Queen Elizabeth Disney Cruise Line unnamed unnamed Holland America Line SHIPYARD GT LOWER BERTHS EST. DELVY EST. PRICE* ($ Mil.) $441 $490 $539 $539 $30 $668 $791 $641 $698 $798 $810 $528 $679 $588 $714 $714 $700 $900 $900 Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Chesapeake Fincantieri Fincantieri Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Meyer Werft Fincantieri Fincantieri Fincantieri Fincantieri Fincantieri Fincantieri Meyer Werft Meyer Werft 69,200 71,000 71,000 71,000 1,500 130,000 130,000 122,000 122,000 122,000 122,000 92,600 “114,500” “92,600” “114,500” “114,500” “92,000” “124,000” “124,000” 2,030 2,174 2,174 2,174 104 3,608 3,608 2,825 2,825 2,825 2,825 “2,260” “3,004” “2,260” “3,004” “3,004” “2,092” “2,500” “2,500” Apr 2009 Mar 2010 Apr 2011 May 2012 Aug 2009 Sep. 2009 Apr. 2011 Aug. 2009 June 2010 Sept. 2011 Sprg. 2012 Apr. 2009 May 2009 Jan. 2010 Sprg. 2011 Sprg. 2012 Oct. 2010 Sprg. 2011 Sum. 2012 Caribbean continues to have the largest fleet capacity by a narrow margin over Carnival and together the two account for 29% of global fleet capacity. The top five brands (gross tonnage basis) account for more than half the total GT and passenger capacity, while the top ten account for three-fourths of the totals. The fleets of the top five brands have an average age of only 10 years, a size of 88,000 GT and a passenger capacity of 2,276, more than twice the global fleet average. ORDERBOOK TOPS $21.6 BILLION The January 1, 2009 orderbook for new construction was 38 ships of 3.4 million GT with a capacity of 84,200 lower berths and a value of $21.6 billion, for delivery through 2012. This is a decrease of $4.3 billion (four ships and 21,000 berths) from January 1, 2008. While the decline in value was due in part to a higher U.S. dollar (which impacted Euro denominated contracts), the capacity of newbuildings was still 20% lower year-over-year. The decline may prove fortuitous, as an orderbook that is 24% of the existing fleet will be much easier to absorb in an uncertain economy over the next several years than an orderbook at last year’s 18 MARINE LOG FEBRUARY 2009 www.marinelog.com http://www.marinelog.com
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