Marine Log - March 2009 - (Page 21) NAVYSHIPBUILDING the plan to maintain 11 carriers, the Navy would order a new ship every four or five years thereafter, in addition to refueling an existing nuclear-powered Nimitz class carrier about every three years. CBO projects that those efforts would require $3.3 billion annually, on average, through 2026, or $3.7 billion with historical cost growth. WHERE WILL THE AXE FALL, AND WHO WILL SWING IT? Given the minimal outline of shipbuilding strategy revealed thus far by the Administration, the LCS and Amphibious and Maritime Prepositioning Ship programs might seem reasonably safe. Beyond that, we will have to wait and see, but it’s interesting to consider who some of the players are. Obama’s OMB Director is Peter Orszag, who is highly regarded around Washington—and who comes to the job after two years as Director of the CBO. Though defense is not his speciality (which is health care), it’s safe to say he’s likely to view Navy spending predictions through a CBO lens. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates is a hold over from the Bush Administration. To some Washington insiders, this is seen as weakening his ability to defend Pentagon turf against OMB. Whether he would even want to is open to question. “The spigot of defense spending that opened on 9/11 is closing,” he recently told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “We will not be able to do everything, buy everything.” Another Bush holdover, Navy Secretary Donald Winter, will be gone by the time this appears—at press time former Mississippi Governor Ray Mabus was being tipped as a possible successor. Also headed out the door is Pentagon acquisition chief John Young. President Obama’s pick to replace him as Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Department of Defense is by Dr. Ashton Carter, a physicist and current Chair of the International & Global Affairs faculty at the Kennedy School. He served as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy from 1993 to 1996. Despite his being twice awarded the Department of Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the highest award given by the Department, he is not getting rave reviews among defense contractors. He’s been highly critical of Bush Administration Pentagon policies. But what the contractors really don’t like is that he has never been employed by any of them. Team Obama is promising acquisition reform big time. “DOD’s new weapons programs are among the largest, most expensive and technically difficult that the Department has ever tried to develop,” says the preliminary budget outline. “As a consequence, they carry a high risk of performance failure, cost increases, and schedule delays. The Administration will set realistic requirements and stick to them and incorporate ‘best practices’ by not allowing programs to proceed from one stage of the acquisition cycle to the next until they have achieved the maturity to clearly lower the risk of cost growth and schedule slippage.” Acquisition reform has been promised before, of course. Having someone from outside of the acquisition establishment in charge of it, could mean it will actually happen. ML www.marinelog.com MARCH 2009 MARINE LOG 21 http://www.nassco.com http://www.marinelog.com
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