Marine Log - December 2007 - (Page 4)

Nick Blenkey Senior Editorial Consultant Second Thoughts Killer ships? remature deaths resulting from harmful emissions from ships totaled 60,000 in 2002, and that death toll is estimated to grow by 40% by 2012 due to continued large increases in global shipping traffic. Those are among the findings of a peer-reviewed epidemiological study entitled “Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment,” published by the the American Chemical Society (ACS) journal Environmental Science & Technology. The lead authors are Dr. James J. Corbett of the University of Delaware and Dr. James Winebrake of the Rochester Institute of Technology. You can access the entire study via the ACS publications website: http://pubs.acs.org According to the abstract, epidemiological studies consistently link ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) to negative health impacts, including asthma, heart attacks, hospital admissions, and premature mortality. The study models ambient PM concentrations from oceangoing ships using two geospatial emissions inventories and two global aerosol models. The study estimates global and regional mortalities by applying ambient PM increases from ships to cardiopulmonary and lung cancer concentrationrisk functions and population models. The findings of the study—notably the 60,000 deaths figure—are being widely publicized by environmental groups including the Clean Air Task Force and Friends of the Earth. Both P are participating in IMO efforts to reduce emissions from ships. They believe the IMO should require reductions of NOx emissions in the 90% range, and reductions of SO2 emissions in the 70-90% range, for both new and existing ships as soon as possible, but no later than 2015. They say the reductions can be accomplished through the use of low sulfur fuels as well as a substantial variety of engine modifications and after-treatment devices. Substantial particulate matter reductions are also needed. O.K., as an industry we can nit-pick this study and point to the fact that epidemiological studies in general do not demonstrate a direct cause-and-effect relationship between a specific exposure and disease. However, we should be aware that epidemiological studies can have powerful consequences. It was the Hammond-Horn Smoking Study (an analytic epidemiologic study undertaken by the American Cancer Society in 1952) that decisively demonstrated the effect of cigarette smoking on death rates from cancer and other diseases. The tobacco industry didn’t like it, and we can’t expect the bunker industry to like the Corbett-Winebrake study. Bit it isn’t going to go away. As IMO wrestles with the problems of limiting harmful emissions from ships, a proposal from INTERTANKO that all ships be switched to distillate fuels seems less radical and more sensible every day. (Unless, of course, you’re among those who would be stuck with refinery residues to dispose of). At least, the problems of cutting NOX, SO2 and particulate emissions are solvable. What is more intractible is the issue of cutting Green House Gas (GHG) emissions from ships. IMO is wrestling with that one, too. But from the shipowner’s viewpoint, what matters is that all shipowners be required to comply within the same time frame. On Nov. 16, IMO Secretary General Efthimios E. Mitropoulos put forward proposals that would accelerate the glacially slow IMO process so that the organization’s Marine Environmental Protection Committee could make some decisions by Autumn 2008, rather than July 2009 as originally envisaged. Mitropolous made his announcement the day before another U.N. entity, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released a major report that provides overwhelming scientific evidence that global warming is real and human activity is helping it along. The MEPC is currently working on an update of a 2000 IMO Study on GHG Emissions from Ships, development of a CO2 Emission Indexing Scheme, a CO2 emission baseline and technical, operational and marketbased methods to achieve a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Be that as it may, what we’re probably headed for is a carbon tax on shipping, levied by port states. nblenkey@sbpub.com 4 MARINE LOG DECEMBER 2007 www.marinelog.com http://pubs.acs.org http://www.titansalvage.com http://www.marinelog.com

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Marine Log - December 2007

Marine Log - December 2007 Contents Editorial Second Thoughts Update Inside Washington Warning: Shipbuilding Over-Supply by 2011 Steely Resolve: Cutting Injuries What’s on Your Mind? Newsmakers Tech News Contracts Events InfoDirect Website Directory ML Marketplace Last Word

Marine Log - December 2007

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