Sustainable Land Development Today - January 2009 - (Page 46)

SLDT THE LAST WORD War, Presidents, and our Current Economic Slump By Roderick D. Johnston A decade after the Korean War in the early 1960s, I remember my dad, a talented mechanical designer, “jobshopping” for work. Many a long dinner was shrouded with him discussing potential projects at Grumman, General Dynamics, and other Long Island manufacturers. Then, during and after Vietnam in the ’70s, it was my turn to hunt for work. Jobs for college students were scarce but I saw paychecks hanging on the back of a garbage truck so I jumped on and lifted cans to get through school. Before the ‘70s could recover, the Iranian Hostage Crisis in combination with a federal policy aimed at restricting lending really gummed things up. Again, I improvised and found work in Alaska, and lots of work at that. Fast-forward through the 1980s, past the Berlin Wall crumbling, cheap oil, the computer revolution, and Europe’s rebuilding to the early 1990s where we became immersed in the First Gulf War. Here we find another round of job losses, economic instability, and an unsure future. Still, within a few years, the Kuwaiti oil field fires were extinguished, the stock market grew horns, and our investments flourished until the late nineties when the tech bubble burst, political questions surrounded Washington, and we found ourselves flying missions over Bosnia. Things weren’t great but they weren’t bad until we faced that horrible September day in 2001. The lesson here is that war and conflict are followed by economic hangovers. It is also interesting to note the flavor that presidential elections took during those years. The elections were hotly contested races and heavily platformed on war, taking a new direction and remedies for what were then anemic economic conditions. Specifically, I am referring to the presidential elections in 1960, 1968, 1980, 1992, and 2000. Think about them. Those same perfect storm when war, poor economic conditions, and market corrections conspire as one against us until, through policy, innovation, or pure will, we adjust and refire the engines that lead to national prosperity. And, remember that we are well into the game. Since 2005, our industry has been weakening, more so in some regions than in others. That is about to change. Housing inventory is beginning to diminish, the dollar is strengthening, and buyer demand continues to mount. People want to retire, they want to buy property, and many want to move. Sure, we know that the credit pipeline has to flow again and it will. Once it begins to trickle, private money will follow from people ready to invest again in housing, real estate, and land development. Capitalism is all about risk and Americans are risk takers. To fully understand our current financial quagmire, you have to look back at similar conditions throughout our history. As somebody once said, the more times changes, the more they stays the same. I believe it. Look for our industry to gradually claw out of this rut early next year. About the author: Rod Johnston is a member of the editorial board of Sustainable Land Development Today and the author of two books, Preparing Projects for Site Construction and the Road Repair Handbook, both of which are available through SLDI. The lesson here is that war and conflict are followed by economic hangovers. election years represented economic turbulence, tough times, and a nation’s yearning for peace. Americans voted for new parties, new ideas, and change at the White House. Today is no different. We are feeling the drain of war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the country has just voted for change. It’s part of the same cycle. The 46 January 2009 Sustainable Land Development Today

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Sustainable Land Development Today - January 2009 Contents Our Voice Your Voice The BottomLine SLDI in Focus Calendar Industry Rebound Will Require Balanced Approach What Happened to Fannie and Freddie? Added Value in Entitlements Industry Spotlights Technology Wastewater Innovation Classifieds Advertiser Index Editorial Board SLDT Resources Last Word

Sustainable Land Development Today - January 2009

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