Visions - Winter 2009 - 16

Continued hope and expectations of an Obama administration and the reality of the economic and national security environments the U.S. currently faces could create a level of disappointment among Obama supporters and could place the Democratic Party on the verge of civil war. Change in the Form of Cabinet Choices? With many of President Obama’s selections for cabinet posts being holdovers from past Clinton and Bush administrations, or those who stand out for their conservatism or supposed competence, more than a few political analysts have remarked that what is actually being promised is more a business-as-usual approach than one predicated on change. And it would not be a stretch to assume that known quantities tend to breed known policies; a chart highlighting a number of President Obama’s cabinet choices and the positions they held in previous Clinton or Bush administrations is provided on page 15. Because an Obama administration promised to veer from the neoconservative approach that marked the Bush administration and the politically partisan approach that was a hallmark of the Clinton years, Democratic ideologues may be somewhat confounded by what would seem to be the president’s centrist cabinet choices. However, both New America’s Clemons and CSIS Counselor and Trustee Zbigniew Brzezinski argue that even if Mr. Obama’s instinct is to lean towards caution early in his term, current macroeconomic, military, and geopolitical circumstances may force radical change in terms of America’s alignment with the world. Global challenges from weapons proliferation to climate change to the rise of Brazil, China, and India are among the forces that may force profound change. One line of reasoning then is that if President Obama wants to recast the U.S. position in the world, it would be best to surround himself with experienced actors. Did the Financial Crisis Change Everything? of its relationship to the economy. Lobbying groups have already begun to frame their issues in terms of potential economic impacts and the implications for jobs.There will be a strong bias against the idea of letting markets work, and elected officials from the White House to Capitol Hill are likely to favor re-regulation efforts. For better or worse, it is a good bet that the pendulum in Washington will swing too far in the direction of regulation in coming months. Conclusion Other Washington political analysts, led by the National Journal’s Charlie Cook, say that it is not the November election results or even the choice of staff to fill an Obama administration that will shape public policy over the next several years; this group of experts believes that the most important development that will cause change in the nation’s capital is the financial crisis that hit this past September. The central focus of next year’s agenda in Congress and the White House will be economic stimulus. Campaign issues such as health care, tax reform, and energy policy will be put on hold and every domestic issue will be viewed in terms Change is coming to Washington. Although the change that is coming may not be what was once the primary focus of the presidential campaign, change will have significant implications for business.Two challenges arise: for business, the challenge will be to try to slow over-regulation without sounding as if defending the policies led to crisis in the first place; for government, the challenge will be to calibrate the proper degree of re-regulation without going too far. The Washington Office will continue to track developments concerning the Obama administration and its response to the financial crisis. For more information, please contact James Winslow, Director, Governmental Affairs, at james.winslow@sumitomocorp.com Sumitomo Corporation of America 16 visions Winter 2009

Visions - Winter 2009

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Visions - Winter 2009