Terry College of Business - Fall 2008 - (Page 15) Sat writing portion: Better predictor of success By Sam Fahmy (BS ’97) T wo Terry economics professors and an undergraduate researcher have completed the first independent, academic study of the redesigned SAT college entrance exam, and their findings indicate that the new writing portion is a much better predictor of academic success than the verbal and math portions. The researchers analyzed data from more than 4,300 test takers and, unlike a recent study published by the group that administers the test, they accounted for several key factors that strongly influence success in college — including the level of parental education and the quality of the high school the student attended. The writing section of the test was introduced in March 2005, and the lack of data on its effectiveness has led nearly half of the nation’s colleges and universities to disregard the scores. David Mustard, who co-authored the study with economics department head Christopher Cornwell and student Jessica Van Parys, says the research team’s findings suggest that schools shouldn’t ignore SAT writing scores. “Schools that don’t use the writing portion are forgoing an opportunity to choose students who will score higher GPAs, take more hours, be less likely to withdraw from classes and more likely to do well in an array of different variables,” says Mustard. “They’re throwing out information that will help them choose a more qualified class.” The researchers found that with each 100-point increase in SAT writing scores, first-year students: • Earn GPAs that are, on average, .07 points higher. • Earn .18 points higher in freshman English classes. • Earn .54 more credit hours. The SAT verbal (now known as the critical-reading section) was also a significant predictor of collegiate success, but not nearly as powerful as the writing section. With each 100-point increase on the SATV, students earned freshman GPAs that were .03 points higher, less than one half the .07 increase for the SATW. Cornwell says the significance of SATV scores diminishes when the writing score is taken into account. “Statistically speaking,” he says, “the verbal section doesn’t add much predictive value beyond the writing section.” Still, the researchers say it is too soon to eliminate the verbal portion of the test. “The writing section could be a better measure of academic ability than the verbal,” says Van Parys [see related story on p. 47], “but another explanation is that it’s so new that students haven’t yet learned to game the test.” High school GPA is still a much stronger predictor of collegiate success than any individual or combined sections of the SAT, but the researchers say the test is clearly useful in differentiating between students who have similar or equivalent GPAs. They examined data from incoming UGA students in 2006, when the first cohort of students to take the redesigned test enrolled. They believe their results will likely apply to other large, selective public universities. The UGA study comes on the heels of one conducted by The College Board, which administers the SAT. That study used a larger sample, says Mustard, but it only took into account broad institutional characteristics such as size and selectivity and whether the oF college or university was public or private. The College Board study looked only at the predictive value of SAT scores with regard to one variable — freshman GPA — while the UGA study looked at other variables in addition to freshman GPA, including grades in freshman English and math, hours enrolled and earned, and the probability that a student will lose the HOPE scholarship. The researchers found that the predictive effect of the SATW is higher than the SATV in all of the outcomes, excluding those related to mathematics. The UGA study also controlled for personal variables, such as the number of AP classes taken in high school and the level of parental education. These controls are critical, the researchers note, because they have a significant influence on collegiate success. Controlling for the student’s high school — taking into account the quality of the school, community demographics, and the effects of peers — increases the explanatory power of their model by 50 percent. “There are so many variables that influence success in college that simply correlating SAT scores with first-year GPAs doesn’t tell you much about the predictive value of the test,” says Mustard. “By holding constant a range of factors, we were essentially able to take a person who has the same family characteristics, education, high school GPA, race, ethnicity, and gender and then see how well variations in SAT scores predict success in college. Despite what critics might say, the test scores really do matter.” UGA admissions director Nancy McDuff is intrigued by the Terry research team’s findings. “Most universities like UGA have to wait to see if adding writing assists in predictability — and it takes a few years to build a strong database of classes and cohorts,” says McDuff. “We are now looking at the second class to have taken the SAT writing exam. The early results look positive to using writing as one of many admissions factors, but we will have to review this over the next several years to learn more. I am hearing from colleagues that they are reviewing their limited information and will likely move to begin using writing over the next few years.” ■ Fall 2008 • 15 Terry College Business
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