Printed Circuit Design & Fab - January 2009 - (Page 8)

AROUND thE world notebooks Outpace pcs in 2009 SCOTTSDALE, AZ – With economic condi- Chinese Shift to Domestic Growth Local Focus EL SEGUNDO, CA – After years of double-digit annual growth, China’s 2008 tions remaining shaky through most of 2009, personal computer sales are forecast to suffer a rare-but-modest decline next year, and PC unit growth is expected to slow down to about half the rate seen in 2008, according to IC Insights. In 2009, however, shipments of portable notebook computers are expected to exceed desktop PCs for the first time ever. Notebook PC shipments are projected to rise 13% to 156 million systems in 2009, versus a 3% decline for desktop systems to 143 million, says the research firm. Worldwide shipments of notebook computers are expected to reach 264 million in 2012, compared to 178 million desktop PCs. Overall PC dollar volumes are forecast to decline 3% next year to $240 billion. While market conditions will remain weak through much of 2009, IC Insights does not believe the PC segment will suffer a protracted downturn, as was the case in the 2001-2002 recession. Supplychain inventories did not grow out of control in 2008, and PCs are more pervasive than they were at the start of this decade. Growing demand for low-cost systems in developing regions is also helping offset some weakness in the U.S., European and Japanese markets. PC revenues are now forecast to rebound by more than 9% in 2010 to about $263 million. PC unit growth is also expected to surge back in 2010 with shipments rising 15% to 350 million systems worldwide, compared to a projected 5% increase in 2009. During the 2009 slowdown year, PC integrated circuit sales will fall 6% to $66.4 billion, the firm says. IC sales for PCs dropped 3% in 2008 to an estimated $70.4 billion after slipping 4% in 2007 to $72.3 billion, mainly as a result of price erosion in DRAMs and x86 central microprocessors sold by Intel and rival Advanced Micro Devices. IC sales are expected to rebound in 2010, reaching an annual record high of $83 billion in 2011. 8 semiconductor sales are expected to rise only 6.7% year-over-year to reach $81.7 billion, iSuppli Corp. predicts. China’s domestic market situation improved in 2008, despite regulatory restrictions and an incomplete supply chain, says the research firm. Popular applications supporting new domestic standards will appear in 2009 as their industrial ecosystems mature. Although there is substantial economic uncertainty, continued revenue growth is anticipated in 2009, according to iSuppli. Moreover, venture capitalists generally lack interest in China’s IC industry. A majority of semiconductor firms are short of capital and face cash flow problems. telecom Industry Continues Expansion BOONTON, NJ – The worldwide telecommunications industry is expected to continue expanding during the next five years, as continuing growth of wireless services in emerging markets offsets the spending slowdown in the advanced economies, says Insight Research Corp. Overall telecommunications services revenues are expected to grow at a compounded rate of nearly 10.3% during the next few years, reaching $2.7 trillion by 2013, says the firm. “Wireless makes the strongest showing, while wireline follows a distant second. Nearly all of the growth in both sectors is expected to occur in broadband services, with wireless broadband service revenues expected to grow at a compounded rate of more than 70% over the forecast period, while wireline broadband services grow at under 10% over the same forecast horizon,” said president Robert Rosenberg. ShIPMENTS SLIP IPC October PCB Shipment Results BANNOCKBURN, IL – North American PCB shipments in October dropped 4.8% year-over-year; orders decreased 14.6% compared to the same month in 2007, says IPC. Year to date, shipments were up 3.6%, while orders were down 2.5%. Sequentially, shipments were down 11.3%, and orders dipped 16%. The book-to-bill ratio increased slightly to 0.96. Rigid PCB shipments were down 5.9% in October, and orders dropped 17.4% year-over-year. Year to date, rigid PCB shipments were up 3.2%, and orders were down 2.5%. Sequentially, rigid PCB shipments decreased 12.8%, and orders fell 17.6%. The book-to-bill ratio slipped slightly to 0.95. Flex circuit shipments were up 8.8%, and orders were up 25.9% compared to October 2007. Year to date, flex circuit shipments were up 9%, and orders were down 2.4%. Sequentially, flex circuit shipments were up 10% and orders increased 2.5%. The book-to-bill ratio jumped up to 1.00. “Rigid PCB orders and shipments in October declined a bit more than normal in October, due to weakening demand, but year-to-date growth over last year is still positive,” said IPC president Denny McGuirk. “The flexible circuit segment showed surprisingly strong growth in October,” he added. “Shipments for the month were at their highest level in more than three years.” In October, 87% of total PCB shipments reported were domestically produced. Domestic production accounted for 86% of rigid PWB and 91% of flex circuit shipments by IPC survey participants. PRINTED CIRCUIT DESIGN & FAB JANUARY 2009

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Printed Circuit Design & Fab - January 2009

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - January 2009 Contents Our Line Market Watch Around the World Happenings ROI The Signal Doctor Positive Plating Final Finish Forum Making Sense of Laminate Dielectric Properties Design and Fab Tips for Improving Solder Mask Registration Automating the DDRx Interface Verification Process Printed Circuit Design & Fab Annual Buyers Guide: Special Suppliers Section Printed Circuit Design & Fab Annual Buyers Guide: Guide to Products and Services Off the Shelf Marketplace Ad Index BGA Bulletin

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - January 2009

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