Printed Circuit Design & Fab - October 2008 - (Page 6)

MarkEt watch SEMiS lEaP Trends in the U.S. electronics equipment market (shipments only). May Computers/electronics products Computers Storage devices Other peripheral equipment Nondefense communications equipment Defense communications equipment A/V equipment Semiconductors Components1 Nondefense search and navigation equipment Defense search and navigation equipment Medical, measurement and control rRevised. PCs, Cellphones Prospects Strong loS altoS, ca – PC and mobile phone manufacturers are upbeat about second-half prospects, says Henderson Ventures (hendersonventures.com), pointing to a 12% jump in semiconductor bookings during the second quarter. Henderson is forecasting an 8.9% increase for shipments this year, after a 3.2% gain in 2007. But the spreading global economic slump will undercut 2009 consumer spending for PCs and cellphones, the firm adds. Unit semiconductor growth will suffer, but the plunge in 2008 investment spending will keep chip prices from cratering. Consequently, 2009 revenues are predicted to increase 7.2%. An economic revival is forecast to spur a 14.5% jump in chip sales in 2010. % Change JUner JUly* -3.6 -3.3 2.1 -2.2 5.7 2.8 -5.8 -14.3 -0.7 3.7 -8.0 -5.4 9.0 -0.2 2.8 -10.6 0.8 9.4 -0.3 46.2 -0.2 -5.2 -1.2 15.3 yTD 1.8 -2.9 -1.0 3.1 0.3 25.7 -12.1 -4.3 -1.1 0.7 4.7 10.7 -2.7 7.7 -6.7 -2.3 4.9 1.9 -6.7 -21.3 -2.2 0.9 9.8 -2.4 *Preliminary. 1Includes semiconductors. Seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, September 3, 2008 Fab Projects Brighten 2009 Outlook San JoSE – A rebound of more than 20% in world semiconductor fab equipment spending is expected in 2009, driven by more than 70 fab projects, says SEMI (semi.org). Overall annual semiconductor fab capacity is expected to grow about 10% in 2009, mostly for 300-mm projects. After delays this year, 2009 will show more than 50% growth in construction spending when many of the pushed-out projects begin. August Continues Manufacturing Decline tEMPE, aZ – Economic activity in the manufacturing sec- tor failed to grow in August, said the Institute for Supply Management (ism.ws). While new orders rose 3.3 points sequentially, production dropped slightly to 52.1%. Inventories were up 4.3 points to 49.3% and customer inventories were up 7.5 points to 54.5%. Backlogs inched to 43.5%. The August PMI dropped 10 basis points to 49.9%. (A reading above 50% indicates the manufacturing economy is generally expanding.) The overall economy grew for the 82nd consecutive month, according to ISM. apr. PMI New orders Production Inventories Backlogs 48.6 46.5 49.1 48.1 51.5 May 49.6 49.7 51.2 48.0 47.0 46.0 JUne 50.2 49.6 51.5 51.2 55.0 47.5 JUly 50.0 45.0 52.9 45.0 47.0 43.0 aUg. 49.9 48.3 52.1 49.3 54.5 43.5 GuanGdonG, china – Guangdong’s local government has increased the minimum monthly wage by approximately 20% per year beginning in July, according to published reports. The government plans to double worker’s income over the next five years. The Shanghai government increased the minimum wage 14% in April. This comes on the heels of a 14% increase in late 2007, effectively pushing wages in the area up by 27% in less than one year. At the current rate of increase, salaries will double every three or four years. Wages Rising in China Customer inventories 45.0 Source: Institute for Supply Management, Sept. 2, 2008 induStry MarkEt SnaPShot Book-to-bills of various components/equipment. Mar. apr. May JUne JUly Semiconductor equipment1 Semiconductors2 Rigid PCBs3 (North America) Flexible PCBs3 (North America) Computers/electronic products4 0.87 1.00 0.99 5.18 0.82 1.01 0.99 5.16 0.78 0.95 1.01 5.07 0.81r 5.91%r 0.94 1.02 5.21r 0.83p 7.10%p 0.94 1.01 4.98p 1.82% 3.82% 4.18% MEtalS indEx DaTe Gold1 Silver2 Copper3 Tin4 12nd 9/10/07 $701.50 $186.09 $3.34 $6.77 6/2/08 $888.25 $246.52 $3.62 $9.60 7/7/08 $968.00 $262.02 $3.88 $10.60 8/4/08 $905.75 $253.83 $3.67 $9.84 9/1/08 $815.00 $186.68 $3.34 $8.82 London Fix price/tr.oz. 2Handy and Harman Silver (COMEX Silver) price/LB. 3LME Cash Seller and Settlement for Copper price/LB. 4LME Cash Seller and Settlement for Tin price/LB. Sources: 1SEMI, 2SIA (3-month moving average growth), 3IPC, 4Census Bureau, pPreliminary, rRevised 6 printEd CirCuit dESign & fAB OCTOBER 2008 http://www.hendersonventures.com http://www.semi.org http://www.ism.ws

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Printed Circuit Design & Fab - October 2008

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - October 2008 Contents Our Line Market Watch Around the World Happenings Test and Inspection ROI Tip Jar Interconnect Strategies Final Finish Forum The New Wave in High-Speed Modeling The PCB Design Library Mixed Signal Design Considerations Modeling Conductor Surface Roughness Copper Erosion: The Influence of Metallurgy on Copper Dissolution The Wave of the Future Ad Index Building a Profitable Niche Marketplace Off the Shelf BGA Bulletin

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - October 2008

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