Printed Circuit Design & Fab - February 2008 - (Page 6)

MARKET WATCH 2008 Electronics Outlook Trimmed % CHANGE OCT.r NOV.* 2.2 -6.2 5.1 -1.1 -8.0 -2.7 14.4 18.3 -2.4 8.1 -1.5 4.8 0.5 2.9 2.9 -3.6 1.5 26.3 3.6 -0.8 0.0 2.1 1.8 -2.1 EL SEGUNDO, CA – Global electronics equipment revenue is expected to rise to $1.6 trillion in 2008, up 6.6% from 2007, iSuppli (isuppli.com) said. The research firm trimmed 40 basis points from its previous forecast of 7% growth. The firm expects 2009 growth of 5.3%. Economic concerns and reductions in capital spending will impact equipment revenue, the firm said. On the strength of a second-half surge in sales, particularly for notebook PCs and 3G handsets, iSuppli raised its 2007 electronics equipment growth outlook to 7.4%, up from 6.8%. DEFENDING THEIR TURF Trends in the U.S. electronics equipment market (shipments only). SEPT. Computers/electronics products Computers Storage devices Other peripheral equipment Nondefense communications equipment Defense communications equipment A/V equipment Semiconductors Components1 Nondefense search and navigation equipment Defense search and navigation equipment Medical, measurement and control rRevised. 1Includes YTD 0.6 -2.0 -10.0 2.3 -2.0 4.4 -0.8 -4.5 3.3 23.3 2.8 5.1 -0.6 18.5 -8.5 0.8 -1.0 -2.6 -10.5 -11.6 0.3 3.0 -3.3 2.3 Experts Cautious on Semis OAK BROOK, IL – A coterie of leading semiconductor experts in December said looming market concerns over higher oil prices, the U.S. mortgage crisis and fears of a possible recession make the outlook for consumer spending a cautious one. The market is slipping slowly, the panel said, but there is hesitant optimism for overall growth. Consumer spending is key because, according to the panel, assembled by the Semiconductor Industry Association (sia-online.org), that group now accounts for more than 50% of semiconductor consumption. SIA predicts a 7 to 8% CAGR from 2006 and 2011, up over 2007 (4%) but below historical patterns. iSuppli Corp (isuppli.com) forecasts 2008 growth of 7.5%, Gartner Dataquest (gartner.com) expects growth of about 6%, Semico Research (semico.com) forecasts 10-11% growth, while analyst Mike Cowan forecasts an 8.15% hike. *Preliminary. semiconductors. Seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, Jan. 3, 2008 December Manufacturing Slows TEMPE, AZ – The housing market felled manufacturing in December, as the PMI dropping 3.1 points to 47.7%, falling below the 50% benchmark for the first time in 11 months. New orders decreased 6.9 points to 45.7%, while production dropped 4.6 points to 47.3%, says the Institute for Supply Management (ism.ws). The 2007 PMI corresponds to a 3.2% increase in real GDP. The December PMI corresponds to 1.8% growth. For the month, inventories and employment were down, while customer inventories and order backlogs were up. “Industries close to the housing market appear to be struggling more than others, and those involved in exports seem to be doing better,” said ISM spokesman Norbert J. Ore. AUG. PMI New orders Production Inventories Customer inventories Backlogs 52.9 55.3 56.1 45.4 49.0 50.5 SEPT. 52.0 53.4 54.6 41.6 50.0 51.0 OCT. 50.9 52.5 49.6 47.2 54.0 46.0 NOV. 50.8 52.6 51.9 46.9 49.0 41.5 DEC. 47.7 45.7 47.3 45.5 51.5 43.0 Organic Materials to Spike GLEN ALLEN, VA – The market for organic electronics materials will be worth $4.9 billion in 2012, surging to $15.8 billion in 2015, according to analyst NanoMarkets (nanomarkets.net). Leading applications will be RFID, display backplanes and OLED lighting and displays. New kinds of organic semiconductor materials such as rubrene and hybrid materials, including formulations with carbon nanotubes, will spur that market to $4.9 billion in revenues by 2015. The substrate business will grow to $6.9 billion, a majority the flexible type and specially prepared for organic electronics through novel forms of barrier coatings and reduced surface roughness. Source: Institute for Supply Management, Jan. 2, 2008 METALS INDEX 10/8/07 LME Cash Seller/ Settlement for Tin LME Cash Seller/ Settlement for Lead Handy and Harman Silver (COMEX Silver) LME Cash Seller/ Settlement for Copper 6 INDUSTRY MARKET SNAPSHOT 11/12/07 $7.64 $1.58 $215.79 $3.07 12/10/07 $7.44 $1.14 $213.94 $3.04 1/07/08 $7.51 $1.21 $224.57 $3.14 Book-to-bills of various components/equipment. JULY AUG. SEPT. $7.12 $1.75 $193.85 $3.62 Semiconductor equipment1 Semiconductors2 Rigid PCBs3 (North America) Flexible PCBs3 (North America) Computers/electronic products4 0.83 0.82 0.79 OCT. 0.80r 4.58%r 1.08 1.10 4.98r NOV. 0.82p 3.93%p 1.06 1.02 4.91p 1.91% 2.73% 4.39% 1.02 1.04 5.08 1.06 1.07 4.94 1.08 1.08 4.90 Sources: 1SEMI, 2SIA (3-month moving average growth), 3IPC, 4Census Bureau, pPreliminary, rRevised PRINTED CIRCUIT DESIGN & FAB FEBRUARY 2008 http://www.isuppli.com http://www.isuppli.com http://www.gartner.com http://www.semico.com http://ism.ws http://nanomarkets.net

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Printed Circuit Design & Fab - February 2008 Contents Our Line Market Watch Around the World Happenings ROI Tip Jar Interconnect Strategies IC/PCB Co-Design Modeling Design Tools Optical Interconnect Trade Shows Laminate Materials Off the Shelf Marketplace Ad Index BGA Bulletin

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - February 2008

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