Printed Circuit Design & Fab - May 2008 - (Page 6)

MARKET WATCH Semiconductor Outlook Mixed % CHANGE JAN.r FEB.* 8.4 -1.5 9.1 -5.0 -4.9 3.4 -2.7 35.5 2.5 13.9 1.1 10.7 -10.3 -3.5 -2.2 -3.2 -1.7 13.2 -4.9 -30.8 -3.7 -17.8 -5.5 -5.0 EL SEGUNDO – Reductions in chip inventory levels often indicate a rise in global semiconductor sales, but an expected decline in surplus stockpiles during the last quarter is revealing troubling signs of market weakness, says iSuppli Corp (isuppli.com). Excess IC inventory worldwide is expected to fall to $2.9 billion by the end of the first quarter, down 14.6% from a revised $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter, according to iSuppli. This follows a 21% sequential fourth-quarter reduction. “The expected drop in surplus stockpiles in the first quarter mainly is due to a pullback in semiconductor production among suppliers,” said Rosemary Farrell, analyst for iSuppli. Semiconductor suppliers are holding much of the excess inventory, rather than OEMs, EMS firms or distributors. However, the PC chain is generally clear of excess supply and levels now conform to seasonal patterns. OEM demand is tracking to forecasts. SEMIS PLUNGE Trends in the U.S. electronics equipment market (shipments only). DEC. Computers/electronics products Computers Storage devices Other peripheral equipment Nondefense communications equipment 0.8 2.9 -4.6 9.3 4.0 YTD 6.4 3.2 14.6 1.6 -1.9 17.8 -11.3 7.0 0.8 22.1 2.5 20.9 Defense communications equipment -11.9 A/V equipment Semiconductors Components1 Nondefense search and navigation equipment Defense search and navigation equipment Medical, measurement and control rRevised. 1Includes -6.4 -1.1 2.9 -7.4 6.1 -2.6 *Preliminary. semiconductors. Seasonally adjusted. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau, Apr. 2, 2008 PCs Up 9.7% CAGR SCOTTSDALE, AZ – Consumer electronics continue to be strong worldwide and will expand through 2011, reports research firm In-Stat (instat.com). Shipments of PCs and peripherals, traditional consumer electronics and communications products will grow at a 9.7% CAGR to hit 3.1 billion units in 2011, the firm says. Also helping: the conversion to digital television. March Manufacturing Continues Slide TEMPE, AZ – Manufacturing continued its downward trend in March, as the PMI index remained below 50%, at 48.6%. New orders dropped 260 basis points, down for the fourth straight month, while production decreased to 48.7%. Inventories dipped 50 basis points, and customer inventories were up slightly at 51%. Backlogs increased 250 basis points. It was the second consecutive month the PMI was under 50%, the point that signals growth. “This completes the weakest quarterly performance for the U.S. economy since the second quarter of 2003,” said ISM spokesman Norbert J. Ore. “Manufacturers continue to experience heavy cost pressures, as the prices they pay are still rising, even with slower overall demand. Some manufacturers are still benefiting from strong export demand and continue to see growth in export orders.” NOV. PMI New orders Production Inventories Customer inventories Backlogs 50.8 52.6 51.9 46.9 49.0 41.5 DEC. 48.4 46.9 48.6 45.4 51.5 43.0 JAN. 50.7 49.5 55.2 49.1 49.5 44.0 FEB. 48.3 49.1 50.7 45.4 49.0 45.0 MAR. 48.6 46.5 48.7 44.9 51.0 47.5 Semi Gear Sales Rose 6% SAN JOSE – Worldwide sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment totaled $42.77 billion in 2007, up 6% year-over-year, SEMI (semi.org) reported. “Supported by the momentum of the 300-mm ramp and intensive memory investments, the global semiconductor equipment industry experienced its second-best year ever,” said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI. “Of note are the Taiwan and China regions, where Taiwan has surpassed Japan, and the China new equipment market is approaching the size of Europe’s.” For the first time, Taiwan spent more on semiconductor equipment than any other region, with Japan second and South Korea in third place, North America fourth and China fifth. Source: Institute for Supply Management, Apr. 1, 2008 INDUSTRY MARKET SNAPSHOT Book-to-bills of various components/equipment. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. 0.82 0.85 0.89r FEB. 0.93p METALS PRICES 11/12/07 Gold1 Silver2 Copper3 Tin4 12nd 12/10/07 809.5 213.94 3.04 7.44 1/7/08 859.25 224.57 3.14 7.51 2/11/08 918 251.64 3.55 7.69 3/10/08 969.25 294.94 3.93 8.73 4/10/08 929.00 288.16 3.92 9.31 Semiconductor equipment1 Semiconductors2 Rigid PCBs3 (North America) Flexible PCBs3 (North America) Computers/electronic products4 0.80 831.5 215.79 3.07 7.64 4.58% 4.39% 3.27% 1.70%r 1.32%p 1.08 1.10 4.98 1.06 1.02 4.97 1.01 1.00 4.94 0.97 0.96 4.77r 0.99 0.96 5.01p London Fix - COMEX Gold. 2Handy and Harman Silver (COMEX Silver). 3LME Cash Seller and Settlement for Copper. 4LME Cash Seller and Settlement for Tin Sources: 1SEMI, 2SIA (3-month moving average growth), 3IPC, 4Census Bureau, pPreliminary, rRevised 6 PRINTED CIRCUIT DESIGN & FAB MAY 2008 http://isuppli.com http://instat.com http://semi.org

Table of Contents Feed for the Digital Edition of Printed Circuit Design & Fab - May 2008

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - May 2008 Contents Our Line Market Watch Around the World Happenings ROI EMC For the Real World PCB East Conference Brochure Positive Plating Don't Let your Signals Stub Their Toes Improve PCB Layout With Skill Utility Programs The Next Generation Design Tool Challenge Thermally Conductive Microwave Materials PCB Dielectric Degradation in Lead-Free Assembly Applications A Tale of Two Trade Shows Eliminating Board Defects Off the Shelf Marketplace Ad Index BGA Bulletin

Printed Circuit Design & Fab - May 2008

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