CitiesGoGreen - October 2008 - (Page 32) Fast Forward Fast Forward is a place to share your big, innovative, incredibly obvious or ‘on the edge’ ideas, proposals, and rants. The subject is how to accelerate progress toward sustainability. Do you see a roadblock to remove, another way of thinking, engaging people, planning or financing? Or something else that would move us forward, fast? Let us know and you could be here in a future issue. You can comment on this column on our website. Climate change targets: How much? How fast? Several climate change targets have emerged. You get to choose. by Colin Grant that 450ppm would take us beyond the threshold of runaway climate change. In 2008, environmentalist and author Bill McKibbon and a team of students launched a website called 350.org. The site features the work of Hansen and others, and is built around Hansen’s conclusion that a level of 350ppm or less (which is lower than the current level) is essential for climate stability. Their intention is to influence the target chosen in the successor agreement to Kyoto, to be reached in Copenhagen at the end of 2009. W hich climate change target will you choose? Here are your major options. What’s possible? Sweden is moving towards its national goal of freedom from oil and toxic chemicals without new coal or nuclear by 2020. They have certified their first “eco-municipalities” such as Overturnea, which have already reached these goals. Similar transformations have taken place in Gussing, Austria, which claims to be the first European city to reduce its GHG emissions by 90%, and in several other European cities such as Freiberg, Germany. With daily news that climate change is occurring faster than even the most pessimistic IPCC projections, anything other than the most ambitious targets such as those of Gore, Brown and Hansen are likely to look out of date very quickly. Given that everything Gore is asking for has already been achieved in several communities around the world, what are we waiting for? 80% by 2050 In 2007, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) issued its Fourth Assessment Report, which, taking into account scientific process and language, and the impact of politics, pretty much said, “We’re frying the planet and it’s every bit as bad as Gore says. We need to make really big changes or we’re toast!” The media morphed this into the myth that a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 80% by 2050 would “stabilize” the atmosphere at a CO2 level of 450 parts per million, with a “safe” two degrees Celsius rise that would avoid runaway global warming. 80% by 2020 Lester Brown of the Earth Policy Institute is on Version 3.0 of Plan B, Saving a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Crisis. He recently moved to a target of GHG emissions reductions of 80% by 2020, far earlier than the widely promoted 2050 target. 50% by 2050 This summer the G8 had a summit, resulting in a tentative agreement to discuss and possibly adopt a target of 50% GHG reductions by 2050, if the developing nations agreed, which they did not. 100% clean by 2018 In July 2008, Al Gore called for an Apolloscale project to get the US to 100% clean energy within a decade. If you are a mayor or county executive who wants your climate plan to be in line with scientific knowledge and societal expectations, you could claim a legitimate effort by adopting any of these targets. Colin Grant is founder and CEO of Visible Strategies Software Inc. in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. An award-winning entrepreneur and international keynote speaker, he has worked in sustainability for more than 15 years and has provided strategic consulting to multinational corporations and non-profits worldwide, including Al Gore’s Live Earth team, and to leaders at all levels of government. Colin is a board member of the International Centre for Sustainable Cities, a member of the Vancouver Mayor’s Sustainability Council and the Vancouver Climate Leaders’ Group. Go to www.visiblestrategies.com for more information. 350 ppm by 2050 Recently James Hansen, widely recognized as the leading US climate scientist, broke from the IPCC pack, stating remember your manners. share. At CitiesGoGreen we’re working hard to pass your great ideas around. You can help, too, by passing on a FREE subscription to friends and colleagues with an government email address. Paid subscriptions are also available to those outside of government positions. go to: .com for more information or call 866-686-8101 32 October 2008 http://citiesgogreen.com/issues/october-2008/fast-forward/choose-a-goal-and-go-for-it http://www.350.org http://www.visiblestrategies.com http://citiesgogreen.com http://citiesgogreen.com
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