Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 14 VO IC E S The Essential Role of Coal in Past and Future Economic Growth By Roger Bezdek inevitable future of weak economic growth, or if the "technooptimists", such as Brynjolfsson and McAfee, predicting a bountiful future (robots, artificial intelligence, nanotech, space colonies, flying cars, etc.) are correct.2 President, Management Information Services, Inc. T he recently published book The Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Dr. Robert Gordon, has taken the policy establishment in Washington, D.C., by storm.1 An eminent economist at Northwestern University outside of Chicago, Gordon's thesis is that the incredible technological innovations of the period 1870-1920 were a "one time in history" series of events that cannot be replicated. Innovations such as electricity, telephones, indoor plumbing, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, radio, sanitation, and refrigeration transformed the U.S. and the world. They were responsible for the extraordinary growth in GDP and incomes in the U.S. and globally over the past 150 years-especially the "golden period" of 1945- 1970.A According to Gordon, no other period in history has brought similar comparable progress, or is likely to again. His controversial conclusion is that U.S. growth has been much slower since 1970 and will continue to be slow in the future. Thus, the U.S. and the rest of the world should become accustomed to productivity and growth rates of less than 1% annually instead of nearly 3%-a huge difference. Further, he contends that governments can take little action in terms of monetary, fiscal, tax, or other policies to measurably change this. This is a pessimistic message with profound economic, social, and political implications. The debate Gordon has generated focuses on whether he is correct that the world faces an 3.0 Percent per year 2.5 2.0 1.5 Actual US 1.0 Actual UK 0.5 0.0 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year FIGURE 1. Growth in real per capita GDP, 1300-21001 14 2100 "The extraordinary world economic and technological progress over the past two centuries would not have been possible without the use of coal and other fossil fuels.'' THE MISSING LINK A critical issue not being discussed is that nowhere in Gordon's book does he give credit to fossil fuels or coal for the economic miracle of the past 200 years. None of the disruptive, revolutionary economic and technological innovations he identifies would have been possible without abundant, reliable, affordable energy. This is especially true of the electricity generated from coal, which powered the 19th and 20th centuries and will continue to power the 21st century, albeit likely at a lower percentage of the total energy mix in the U.S. and most other developed nations. Gordon combined the historical UK/U.S. growth record with a forecast and overlaid a curve showing growth steadily increasing to the mid-20th century and then declining to 0.2% annually by 2100 (see Figure 1). He translated these growth rates into corresponding levels of per capita income, which for the U.S. in 2007 was $44,800 (2005 US$). The per capita income for the UK in 1300 was $1150 (2005 US$), and it took five centuries for that to triple to $3450 (2005 US$) in 1800, and over a century to then double to $6350 (2005 US$) in 1906-his transition year from UK to U.S. data. Even with the slowdown in the growth rate after 1970, the forecast level implied in Figure 1 for 2100 is $87,000 (2005 US$), almost double that of 2007.1 A key implication of Gordon's work, which, unfortunately, he does not recognize, is the essential role of fossil Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Cornerstone - Summer 2016 From the Editor: The World is Changing with Smart Technologies CoverStory: Digital, Interconnected Power Plants to Improve Efficiency and Reduce Emissions Developing Conventional and Alternative Energy in China The Essential Role of Coal in Past and Future Economic Growth Juggling Development Objectives and the Role for Coal After the Paris Agreement Policy Parity for CCS Would Move the U.S. Closer to Its Ultimate Goals A New Platform to Estimate Mercury Emissions India's Dash for Coal Loses Pace Coal and Clean Coal Technologies in Turkey Powers of Perception: The State of the Art and Future of Sensors in Coal Power Plants Using Automation to Increase Mining Safety and Productivity Advances in Pressurized Oxy-Combustion for Carbon Capture Doing the Right Work at the Right Time in the Power Plant of Tomorrow Global News Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Cover1 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Cover2 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - From the Editor: The World is Changing with Smart Technologies Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 2 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 3 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - CoverStory: Digital, Interconnected Power Plants to Improve Efficiency and Reduce Emissions Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 5 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 6 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 7 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 8 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 9 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Developing Conventional and Alternative Energy in China Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 11 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 12 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 13 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - The Essential Role of Coal in Past and Future Economic Growth Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 15 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 16 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 17 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 18 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Juggling Development Objectives and the Role for Coal After the Paris Agreement Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 20 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 21 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 22 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 23 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Policy Parity for CCS Would Move the U.S. Closer to Its Ultimate Goals Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 25 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 26 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 27 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 28 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - A New Platform to Estimate Mercury Emissions Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 30 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 31 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 32 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - India's Dash for Coal Loses Pace Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 34 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 35 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 36 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 37 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Coal and Clean Coal Technologies in Turkey Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 39 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 40 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 41 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 42 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 43 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Powers of Perception: The State of the Art and Future of Sensors in Coal Power Plants Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 45 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 46 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 47 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Using Automation to Increase Mining Safety and Productivity Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 49 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 50 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 51 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Advances in Pressurized Oxy-Combustion for Carbon Capture Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 53 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 54 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 55 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 56 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Doing the Right Work at the Right Time in the Power Plant of Tomorrow Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 58 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 59 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 60 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 61 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 62 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Global News Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - 64 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Cover3 Cornerstone - Summer 2016 - Cover4 http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2016winter http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2016autumn http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2016summer http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2016spring http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2015winter http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2015autumn http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2015summer http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2015spring http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2014winter http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2014autumn http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2014summer http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2014spring http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2013winter http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2013autumn http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2013summer http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/wiley/cornerstone_2013spring http://www.nxtbookMEDIA.com
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