Baking&Snack - July 2013 - 12

EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor
Executive Editor

Lies, Dang Lies and …

Managing Editor

… statistics. At least, that’s how the saying goes, but when it comes to the collapse of
Hostess Brands, the supermarket scanning data suggest a brutally honest tale about
its effect on the bread aisle.
According to IRI, a Chicago-based research firm, the leading performers among
the post-Hostess Top 10 vendors in the bread category included Flowers Foods,
Lewis Bakeries, Aunt Millie’s Bakeries and Franz Bakery — all of which experienced double-digit growth for the 52 weeks ending May 19, 2013. That’s nearly six
months to the day that Hostess shut down.
During that period, IRI noted that Hostess bread sales declined by more than
50%, meaning $350 million changed hands in the retail bread category. That’s not
counting what Hostess sold into foodservice and other channels not monitored
by IRI.
During the past six months, some adept, swift-moving companies seized this
once-in-a-blue-moon opportunity. Some did it by taking shelf space. Others seem
to be growing via market penetration and geographic expansion.
Certainly, you can debate whether the demise of Hostess was good or bad for
the industry, but it’s clear that Christmas came early for many wholesalers after the
longtime producer of Wonder bread closed last November.
That’s because overall sales of packaged bread continue to slump, falling slightly
more than 1% to $8.7 billion, IRI reported. Likewise, buns tumbled 0.3% to $1.9
billion; bagels also dropped 0.3% to $820.9 million and other rolls, buns and croissants saw a 0.5% skid to $1.7 billion. If your sales are rockin’, maybe you didn’t mind
that Hostess took a sockin’.
For the category leader, Bimbo Bakeries USA, Hostess’ departure had less of an
effect on overall dollar sales. In the packaged bread category, for instance, BBU saw
sales slip 1.0% to $2.5 billion, IRI noted.
That said, the dynamics of the historically diversified bread aisle have significantly changed, especially in traditional supermarkets and other outlets where IRI captures its scanning data. Together, IRI data suggested BBU and private label maintain
a 90% share of English muffin sales, 85% of bagels, 67% of hamburger and hot dog
buns and even account for more than 51% of packaged bread sales.
No doubt, there are large parts of the country where companies like
Flowers, the No. 2 bakery in the nation, are clear leaders. And there
are regions where Franz and others have strengthened their leading presence. Of course, don’t forget alternate channels such
as foodservice outlets and dollar stores where other bakeries
capture the lion’s share of the business. The entire market for
baked goods is much larger than what IRI data captures.
The overall bread aisle is still struggling, but for many companies, it still looks robust and full. At least that’s what those
dang statistics say to me.
But if I’m wrong, don’t call me a liar. I’m just calling it by
the numbers.
— Dan Malovany, editor
dmalovany@sosland.com

Associate Editor

Dan Malovany
dmalovany@sosland.com
Laurie Gorton
lgorton@sosland.com
Joanie Spencer
jspencer@sosland.com
Shane Whitaker
swhitaker@sosland.com

/ Baking & Snack / July 2013

Senior Editor

Charlotte Atchley
catchley@sosland.com
Contributing Editors:
Donna Berry
donnaberry@dairy-food.com
Theresa Cogswell
bakercogs@sbcglobal.net
Jeff Dearduff
jdearduff@gmail.com
Jim Kline
jkline@theensolgroup.com
Joe Stout
joestout@cf-san.com
DESIGN STAFF
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Manager of Advertising Design Becky White
Classified Ad Layout
Vanessa McKenzie
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Melanie Hepperly
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Marj Potts
Circulation Manager
Judy Arnone
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Advertising & Promotions Carrie Fluegge
Promotions Manager
Lon Davis

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Baking&Snack - July 2013

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