Food Business News - August 14, 2012 - 55

Market commentary for one-week period ended August 10, 2012

Soy Products
Soy flour prices firmed last week, reflecting gains in the soy complex on fears of tight supplies as the result of droughtreduced soybean production. Soybean futures sagged much of last week on scattered beneficial rains in the Midwest but rose sharply ahead of Friday’s U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Forecasts were for reductions in soybean yields and production. After the reports’ release, soybean futures continued trading higher on sentiment that world supplies may remain tight. The U.S.D.A. in its Aug. 10 WASDE projected the carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, at 115 million bus, down 15 million bus, or 12%, from 130 million bus in July and down 30 million bus, or 21%, from a downwardly revised 145 million bus estimated for this year. The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover number was in line with pre-report trade estimates, but the 2012 number was below the trade average of 157 million bus. U.S. 2012 soybean production, in the ﬁrst survey-based estimate of the year, was forecast at 2,692 million bus, down 358 million bus, or 12%, from 3,050 million bus in July and down 364 million bus, or 12%, from 3,056 million bus in 2011. Projected yield was 36.1 bus an acre, down 4.4 bus from the previous forecast and down 5.4 bus from 2011. The U.S.D.A. also reduced its soybean export and domestic crush projections from July. Exports for 2012-13 were projected at 1,110 million bus, down 260 million bus from 1,370 million bus in July and down 240 million bus from 2011-12. Crushings were projected at 1,515 million bus, down 95 million bus from July and down 175 million bus from 1,690 million bus in 2011-12.

Drought concerns remained significant as the crop matured ahead of the average pace. The U.S.D.A. rated the soybean crop in the 18 major states at 29% good to excellent as of Aug. 5, the same as a week earlier but well below 61% at the same time last year. Ninetythree per cent of the soybean crop in the 18 major states was blooming, and 71% of the crop was setting pods as of Aug. 5. FBN

or 45%, from 1,183 million bus projected in the July report and down 371 million bus, or 36%, from 1,021 million bus in 2011-12. The U.S.D.A. said 23% of the corn crop in the 18 major states was rated good to excellent as of Aug. 5, down slightly from a week earlier and down sharply from 60% in the same week a year ago. FBN

Corn Products
Corn flour and brewers’ grits experienced strong seasonal demand and higher prices, while corn meal prices fluctuated following corn futures but ended modestly lower. The corn futures market was preoccupied with positioning before last Friday’s U.S.D.A. Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. Prices rose on expectations yields and production would sustain significant downward revisions from July projections but closed lower after the reports. For the week, nearby September declined but other months rose. The U.S.D.A. projected 2012 corn production at 10,779 million bus, down 2,191 million bus, or 17%, from 12,970 million bus as projected in July and down 1,579 million bus, or 13%, from 2011. Based on Aug. 1 conditions, corn yield was forecast at 123.4 bus an acre, down 23.8 bus per acre from 147.2 bus an acre in 2011 and the lowest since 113.5 bus an acre in 1995, the U.S.D.A. said. Harvested area was forecast at 87.4 million acres, down from 88.9 million acres in July. If realized, corn production would be the lowest since 10.531 million bus in 2006, the U.S.D.A. said. The U.S.D.A. corn number was below the average pre-report trade estimate of 10,971 million bus. Ending stocks in 2012-13 were forecast at 650 million bus, down 533 million bus,

Oats
Food-grade oats ﬂakes were mostly steady. Oats futures were modestly higher, mostly following corn futures. The U.S. oats crop in the nine major states was 87% harvested as of Aug. 5, compared with 44% on the same date a year ago and 52% as the 2007-2011 average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said. The harvest was 100% completed as of Aug. 5 in Iowa, Nebraska and Texas. The government of Saskatchewan said favorable rains fell during the week ended July 30, and that the oats harvest was under way in some regions. FBN

Rice
U.S. milled rice and rice byproducts prices were steady to higher last week. U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world milled rice prices were unchanged. Rice in the six major states was 79% headed as of Aug. 5 compared with 57% as the 2007-11 average for the date, the U.S.D.A. said. The crop was rated 69% good to excellent, down from 70% a week earlier but above 66% a year ago. The U.S.D.A. on Aug. 10 estimated 2012 U.S. rice production at 189,972,000 cwts, up 3% from 185,009,000 cwts in 2011. U.S. rice carryover on Aug. 1, 2013, was projected at 28.4 million cwts, down 2% from the July forecast and down 15% from 33.5 million cwts in 2012. FBN

Chicago corn and soy futures
Corn Futures $ per bu September December March May July September Soybeans August September November January March May Soybean Meal August September October December January March — Change from — Year Aug. 10 Aug. 3 July 27 ago 8.00 8.09¼ 8.12 8.07¼ 7.98 6.82 $ per bu 17.09½ 16.73¼ 16.43¾ 16.35½ 15.45¼ 14.76¾ $ per ton 544.50 521.10 503.40 494.90 484.00 451.30 -10 +1¾ +3¼ +5¼ +3¼ -1¼ +53¼ +37½ +15 +10½ +3½ +20 +12.90 +11.20 +6.10 +2.60 -0.80 -2.80 +1½ +16 +24½ +26¼ +24¾ +11¼ +25¼ +45½ +42 +44¼ +66¼ +63½ +16.80 +19.00 +18.80 +18.10 +16.60 +24.60

Soy products
Defatted, f.o.b. Midwest plant, $ per cwt — Change from — Aug. 10 Aug. 3 July 27 7.01¾ Soy ﬂour 35.50 @ 36.90 +.55@ +.27 +.75 @+1.16 7.14½ Bulk 37.50 @ 37.90 +.55@ +.27 +.76 @+1.15 7.27½ Sacked 7.32 Corn meal 7.34½ 6.84½ $ per cwt — Change from — Aug. 10 Aug. 3 July 27 13.37 27.00@ 30.40 -.19@-.21 -.84@+.02 13.27¾ Chicago, bulk 13.34¾ Chicago, sacked 28.77@ 32.23 -.19@-.21 -.84@+.02 28.67@ 32.13 -.19@-.21 -.84@+.02 13.45¾ New York, bulk 13.52½ New York, sacked 31.09@ 34.52 -.19@-.21 -.84@+.02 13.54 348.60 347.10 349.20 352.10 354.40 357.00

Rice
offers f.o.b. mills, $ per cwt, bagged — Change from — Year Cash Aug. 10 Aug. 3 July 27 ago Long grain 24.50@26.25 0@+1.25 0@+1.25 25 Medium grain 27@27.50 — — 35.50 Parboiled 28.50@31.50 +0.75@0 +0.75@0 29 Second heads, bulk 18@19 0@+0.50 0@+0.50 16 Brewers 17@18 — — 13.50 f.o.b. mills, $ per ton Rice millfeed 70 … … 65 Rice bran 180@200 +30 +30 140 Rice hulls 30 — — 20 U.S.D.A. 2011 crop world price milled - $ per cwt Long grain 18.22 — -0.20 21.48 Medium/short grain 17.94 — -0.25 21.19 Broken 12.89 — -0.14 15.20 C.B.O.T. rough rice futures - $ per cwt September 15.94½ -0.03 +0.34½ 16.81 November 16.21 -0.04 +0.34 17.13 January 16.48½ -0.03½ +0.34½ 17.43 March 16.77 -0.02½ +0.30½ 17.68

Oats
— Change from — Minneapolis Aug. 10 Aug. 3 July 27 Food grade ﬂakes, f.o.b., bagged, $ per cwt 31.50@31.75 — — Milling quality oats, No. 2 heavy, $ per bu 4.08¼ +10¼c +11¼c Oat hulls, $ per ton 25@35 — —

August 14, 2012

FOODBUSINESS NEWS

Food Business News - August 14, 2012

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