Milling & Baking News - April 13, 2004 - (Page 1)

Theinewsweeklyiofigrain-basedifoods From grain shippers to bakers, concerns mount as fuel prices rise KANSAS CITY - The recent decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to proceed with a petroleum production cutback despite high global crude oil prices didn't resonate well in the grain-based foods industry. OPEC's decision to trim output by 4% beginning this month equates to 1 million fewer barrels per day reaching the world market. About half of all U.S. oil imports come from OPEC's 11 member countries. Because OPEC's members have a tendency to produce more than their stated production targets, some energy analysts have surmised the cuts will not dramatically affect either prices for crude or prices for gasoline and diesel fuel. LATE Nevertheless, gasoline and diesel prices that have reached $2 per gallon in some parts of the United States likely will not ease anytime soon. That's making life difficult for grain growers, grain shippers and bakers, all of whom have found it tough to pass their increased fuel costs through the supply chain. "It's a major concern," said Randy Gordon, a spokesman with the National Grain and Feed Association. "It's awfully hard to pass along these costs in a competitive world." Nicholas Pyle, president of the Independent Bakers Association, said surging energy costs not only have raised costs for Continued on Page 18 NPD Group finds few consumers fully embracing low-carb diets NEWS WA S H I N G T O N - The June 1 wheat carryover was forecast at 531 million bus, down 13 million bus from March, in data issued April 8 by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The carryover would still be up 40 million bus, or 8%, from 491 million bus in 2003. The decrease from March resulted from a 15million-bu increase in the 2003-04 export projection, to 1,165 milContinued on Page 10 '04 wheat carryover forecast cut Small gain in flour use a welcome change PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. - Few Americans have wholeheartedly embraced lowcarbohydrate diets, according to a new report issued last week by the NPD Group. A second report, issued by another marketing research group, affirmed the growing popularity of low-carbohydrate foods. In its "Report on Carbohydrate Consumption Patterns," the NPD Group found that virtually none of the 11,000 adults studied were cutting carbohydrates to the degree that low-carbohydrate diets recommend. In fact, among people who say they are on low-carbohydrate diets, only one out of four is actually significantly cutting carbohydrates, the group said. The NPD Group found that the adults who are cutting carbohydrates are still eating an average of 128 grams of refined Continued on Page 12 COOKIE industry perspective COOKIE industry perspective Moving forward Story on Page 25 inside APRIL 13, 2004 bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com WASHINGTON - Domestic disappearance of flour in the United States in 2003 increased a minuscule 0.4% over the previous year, according to annual estimates just issued by the Economic Research Service. At the same time, that performance contrasted starkly with the previous two years of decreases - 2% in 2002 and 2.6% in 2001 - that had brought the rising trend over the previous several decades to a screeching halt. The E.R.S. estimated use of flour in the United States in 2003 at 395,664,000 cwts, up 1,587,000 from the previous year. In 2002, use was 394,077,000 cwts, which was down 8,372,000 from the previous year. In 2001, use amounted to 402,449,000 cwts, which was down 10,790,000 cwts from the prior year. It was in 2000 that domestic consumption reached the record of 413,239,000 cwts, including an increase of 14,906,000 Continued on Page 36 THIS WEEK Kellogg raises '04 earnings estimates 12 Ingredient Futures exchanges set trading records 20 Acrylamide plan detailed by F.D.A. 34 Week 38 http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

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Milling & Baking News - April 13, 2004