Milling & Baking News - April 5, 2011 - 66

Export and Trade Issues 

Resistance to rising prices accounts for drop in world ﬂour export estimate
four years, or since 2006-07, when the global volume totaled 10,696,000. The estimated outgo for the current season would be down 9% from the world ﬂour trade record of 12,870,000 tonnes achieved in the 2009-10 crop year. The latest 2010-11 estimate, equal to 187 million cwts of ﬂour, was still sharply above the recent export low of 5,861,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent in 1985-86. Exports of durum semolina are not included in the I.G.C. data on world ﬂour shipments. Those World trade in wheat ﬂour shipments recently have been 1,000 tons (wheat equivalent) at 200,000 tonnes per year. ‘09-10 ‘10-11 forecast Adding that to the I.G.C. agDestination 2007-08 ‘08-09 est. Nov. 10 Mar. 11 gregate brings global trade in Europe 66 102 70 80 80 all wheat ﬂour in 2010-11 to E.U.-27 17 35 43 40 40 11,900,000 tonnes, compared Others 49 67 28 40 40 with 13,070,000 in 2009-10. C.I.S. 2,349 2,447 2,250 2,310 2,310 Russia 31 14 9 100 100 The latter marked the ﬁrst Tajikistan 748 667 490 600 600 time in history that global Uzbekistan 919 1,222 1,500 1,200 1,200 ﬂour exports exceeded 13 LONDON — Resistance to sharply higher prices was blamed by the International Grains Council for a reduction in its estimate of world trade in wheat ﬂour in the 2010-11 season. In its latest analysis of trade prospects in the current season, the I.G.C. placed the likely total at 11,700,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, down 630,000 tonnes from its prior forecast made late last November. At the indicated total, 2010-11 world trade in wheat ﬂour would have dipped to the lowest level in
718 165 191 46 235 81 1,358 369 871 118 1,652 1,031 154 467 3,453 1,425 348 782 58 77 158 159 138 23 285 2,186 780 758 21 1,406 524 73 58 117 115 108 411 61 354 12,331 620 680 680 120 150 150 75 150 150 68 80 80 230 200 200 127 100 100 1,300 1,330 1,230 350 350 250 890 900 900 60 80 80 1,650 1,620 1,420 1,200 1,200 1,000 85 120 120 365 300 300 4,370 3,680 3,510 1,800 1,400 1,300 360 380 380 1,000 800 900 130 100 120 120 80 80 142 150 100 195 150 12 155 150 180 38 30 40 430 440 398 1,960 1,960 1,790 400 520 370 390 500 350 10 20 20 1,560 1,440 1,420 460 500 500 105 100 60 80 60 60 140 110 100 150 135 110 110 80 75 515 455 515 70 70 70 580 500 610 12,870 12,330 11,700

N. and C. America 823 Canada 194 Cuba 261 Mexico 53 United States 259 Others 56 South America 1,502 Bolivia 332 Brazil 1,076 Others 94 Near East Asia 920 Iraq 602 Yemen 100 Others 218 Far East Asia 3,443 Afghanistan 922 Hong Kong 386 Indonesia 726 North Korea 135 South Korea 98 Mongolia 171 Philippines 143 Thailand 260 Vietnam 113 Others 487 Africa 2,465 North Africa 1,082 Libya 1,060 Others 22 Sub-Sahara 1,383 Angola 493 Chad 50 Gambia 53 Guinea 111 Somalia 127 Sudan 58 Others 491 Oceania 67 Unspeciﬁed 214 World total 11,849

million tonnes of wheat equivalent. Price resistance primarily was felt in three countries that reduced their takings. The three are Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, which experienced reductions of 100,000 tonnes, 200,000 tonnes and 150,000, respectively, from prior estimates. Afghanistan, expected to import 1.3 million tonnes of wheat ﬂour in wheat equivalent this season, was once again the leading import ﬂour market. It has held that position for several years, reﬂecting the nation’s stepped-up food needs in response to the high level of military conﬂict under way in that country. The second largest ﬂour importing nation in 2010-11, according to I.G.C. estimates, will be Uzbekistan, with takings forecast at 1.2 million tonnes, down from 1.5 million in the prior season, but in line with earlier years. The only other country expected to import at least 1 million tonnes was Iraq, another nation where demand for ﬂour was affected by military actions. Its expected imports were down 200,000 from the prior prospect and showed the same decrease from

Political upheavals and regime changes under way in leading ﬂour importers
LONDON — In revising its estimate of world trade in wheat flour during the 2010-11 season, the International Grains Council only noted the impact of rising prices on demand for flour imports. The I.G.C. said nothing about how the revolutions and political upheavals that have been occurring in recent weeks and months in countries ranking among the major flour consumers as well as global importers. Much of the political and military upheavals in the Arab nations was ascribed to widespread public dissatisfaction with dictatorial regimes. High food prices and even food shortages were often cited as core problems in these countries where flourbased foods account for a large part of the diet. Just how flour imports will be affected was not yet apparent. North Africa and the Middle East are the areas that have been experiencing internal turmoil, including regime changes and protests that have attracted considerable attention. These two regions accounted for 15% of world flour imports in 2010-11. In its latest estimates, the I.G.C. estimated flour imports by North Africa at 370,000 tonnes in wheat equivalent, down from the prior estimate of 520,000 tonnes and also less than imports of 400,000 in 2009-10. For the Near or Middle East, the latest I.G.C. flour import estimate was 1,420,000 tonnes of wheat equivalent, down 200,000 from its takings in the prior year. As recently as 2007-08, Libya, the leading flour importer in North Africa, took 1,060,000 tonnes, which ranked it near the top as a flour importer. Its imports for 2010-11 were newly estimated at 350,000 tonnes. Iraq is the leading flour importer in the Middle East, accounting for expected takings in 2010-11 of 1 million tonnes, down by 200,000 tonnes from the preceding year. MBN

Source: International Grains Council 66 / April 5, 2011 Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - April 5, 2011

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