Milling & Baking News - March 6, 2012 - 37

U.S.D.A. forecasts 2012 wheat crop at 2,165 million bus
WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture, in its initial 2012-13 supply-and-demand forecasts for wheat presented on Feb. 24 at the Agricultural Outlook Forum, projected 2012 U.S. wheat production at 2,165 million bus, up 166 million bus, or 8%, from 1,999 million bus in 2011. U.S. wheat supplies and ending stocks in 2012-13 also were projected to increase from the levels forecast for the current year. The wheat forecasts were presented by Ed Allen, an agricultural economist with the U.S.D.A.’s Economic Research Service. They were based on the Jan. 12 Winter Wheat Seedings report and assumed normal weather conditions for increased spring wheat and durum plantings and summer crop development. The wheat forecasts will be updated in the U.S.D.A.’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Projected at 2,165 million bus, wheat production in 2012 would compare with 2,207 million bus in 2010 and the recent five-year average at 2,195 million bus. The U.S.D.A. forecast area planted to wheat for harvest in 2012 at 58 million acres, up 3.6 million acres, or 7%, from 54.4 million acres in 2011 and compared with 53.6 million acres in 2010 and 59.2 million acres in 2009. The recent five-year average planted area was 58.2 million acres. Harvested area of wheat in 2012 was forecast at 48.7 million acres, up 3 million acres from 2011 and compared with 47.6 million acres in 2010. The recent five-year average wheat harvested area was 50 million acres. Average wheat yield in 2012 was forecast at 44.5 bus per acre, up from 43.7 bus per acre in 2011 and compared with a record 46.3 bus per acre in 2010. The recent five-year average wheat yield was 43.9 bus per acre. The 2012 yield forecast marked a return to trend yields after foul weather reduced yields in the hard red winter wheat and hard red spring wheat areas last year. The U.S.D.A. forecast the wheat harvested-to-planted-acre ratio at 84%, well below the five year-average of nearly 86%. “The lower ratio reflects prospects for increased abandonment due to drought this past year in the southern and central Plains that adversely affected early 2012 crop establishment and the potential for an increase in wheat area harvested for forage with strong
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hay prices this spring,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Although drought persists in the southern and central Great Plains, timely winter precipitation has helped to lift crop conditions. Weighted by seeded area, the hard red winter wheat states have 46% of their crop rated in the good or excellent categories, compared with only 24% at this time last year. As an indicator of Midwestern soft red winter wheat, 75% of Illinois’ winter wheat crop is rated as good to excellent, up from 45% at this time last year. The mild winter and above normal precipitation in the growing region are behind improved crop condition in Illinois.” The U.S.D.A. indicated it expects production increases for hard red winter wheat, durum and other spring wheat in 2012, which would be partially offset by production decreases expected for soft red winter and white winter wheat. “Hard red winter plantings are up 6% this year, and a return to more normal yields will also lead to higher production,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Durum and other-spring wheat are also expected to have higher planted area, especially in the Dakotas and Montana. Soft red winter planted area is down 2% from the previous year with the biggest reductions in the eastern Corn Belt. Soft red winter yields were also strong in 2011, and a return to more normal yields will further reduce production. White winter wheat planted area is projected to decline 3% from the previous year.” With the 2012 wheat carryover (comprising 2012-13 wheat beginning stocks) forecast at 845 million bus and wheat imports forecast at 120 million bus, total wheat supply in the United States in 2012-13 was projected at 3,130 million bus, up 5% from 2,982 million bus in the current year and compared with 3,279 million bus in 2010-11. Domestic use of wheat in 2012-13 was forecast at 1,198 million bus, up 36 million bus, or 3%, from the 1,162 million bus projected for the current year. Food, seed and industrial use of wheat was projected at 1,018 million bus, up 1 million bus from 2011-12. Of this aggregate, 945 million bus were forecast as food use in 2012-13, up 10 million bus from the 935 million bus projected for 2011-12. The U.S.D.A. said the 2012-13 food use forecast assumed a U.S. population growth

rate of less than 1%, stable per capita flour consumption and a slight decline in the flour extraction rate from “the very high levels of recent years.” Seed use of wheat in the United States in 2012-13 was projected at 73 million bus, down 9 million bus from the current year as planted area for 2013 was expected to decline significantly. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2012-13 was forecast at 180 million bus, up 24% from the 145 million bus projected for the current year. “The increase reflects higher projected production for 2012-13 and expected low prices for wheat relative to

All wheat production
in thousand bus
2,344,415 2,499,164 2,218,061

2,051,088

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture *forecast

corn during the summer quarter (JuneAugust) of 2012-13,” the U.S.D.A. said. The U.S.D.A. forecast 2012-13 U.S. wheat exports at 975 million bus, unchanged from the projection for the current year but down 24% from 1,289 million bus in 2010-11. U.S. export prospects were expected to be constrained by strong competition from other world wheat exporters. “The United States is expected to have a window of opportunity for sales, especially when new-crop wheat becomes available in May-June,” the U.S.D.A. said. The U.S.D.A. forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 at 957 million bus, up 112 million bus from the projection for the current year and the largest since 976 million bus in 2009-10. The recent five-year average U.S. wheat ending stocks was 651 million bus. The wheat ending-stocks-to-use ratio for 2012-13 was forecast at 44%, up from 39.5% in 2011-12 but down 4.4 percentage points from the recent high in 2009-10. The 2012-13 season-average farm price of wheat was projected at $6.30 a bu, down $1 from the midpoint of the record high projected for 2011-12. MBN
Milling & Baking News March 6, 2012 / 37

1,808,416

1,999,347

2,165,000*

2,156,790

2,103,325

2,206,916



Data

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Milling & Baking News - March 6, 2012

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