Milling & Baking News - November 13, 2012 - (Page 42)

Weather Outlook  In marked change, world weather pattern transitioning to ‘normal’ The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a tool used to predict and assess El Niño and La Niña conditions has been in a neutral mode for the past Plains. However, in nearly all of couple of months. In the past when BY DREW LERNER KANSAS CITY — After two to three these cases the dryness is no longer the SOI has been in this mode weathyears of highly unusual and some- having much impact on crops be- er conditions around the world have times extreme weather the world cause of either plant dormancy or trended relatively close to normal. The SOI predictor has suggested pattern is beginning to look much the harvest season. Australia’s damaged wheat crop that the North China Plain and Inlike that we thought was “normal.” The next 30 days and possibly will be all harvested in the next few dian winter crop areas will see near more may generate a rather benign weeks. Russia’s drought will be hid- to above average precipitation and weather pattern with little more den under snow and behind the cold if that proves correct there would be than slightly anomalous weather in pattern of the next few weeks and some very high yield potentials this many of the world’s most important months. The same can be said of dry- summer. SOI correlations also are ness in the northern U.S. Plains and offering relatively normal weather grain production areas. Drought was reported in each of the Canada’s Prairies. That buys each of to South Africa maize production areas while Brazil and Argentina see a favorable mix of weather. Europe usually experiences a near to above average precipitation bias and with the help from the North Atlantic Oscillation, Europe’s greatest precipitation is liable to be in southern parts of the continent. Some of the moisture in Europe also is expected to reach into the western Commonwealth of Independent States Neutral ENSO conditions and a neutral Southern Oscillation Index during the suggesting Ukraine and Russia weathSeptember/October period usually produce a relatively benign world rainfall pattern. er will be favorable These are the anomalies that are mostly likely to occur in November for crops moving based on these factors alone. into dormancy. North Africa is another winter world’s key grain production areas at these drier biased areas an opportu- wheat production area that is liable one time or another over the past year. nity for improved weather and soil to see normal weather in the month Argentina, Brazil, Australia, China, conditions in the next few weeks and of November and possibly early DeIndia, Southeast Asia, South Africa, months before weather becomes a cember to support wheat planting Europe and the parts of both Russia critical factor once again in the spring. and establishment. In the United States, the bias will be for below-avand Ukraine each had at least a shorterage precipitation in the Plains and term bout of dryness that threatened Absence of clear signals prevails The latest forecast indices that help western Corn Belt, as well as the crops. Many of those threats actually ended up reducing production for predict weather trends and biases are Pacific Northwest. The southeastern wheat, corn, soybeans, rice and other all running rather benign right now. U.S. also will experience drier than Not many clear signals for change or usual conditions while the Midwest grain and oilseed crops. for status quo conditions have been sees additional bouts of rain along identified. Quite often when this is with the southernmost Great Plains. Impact of dryness wanes World Weather, Inc. believes each Slowly, in the past few weeks, the situation world weather tends dryness has been reduced and in to be “average.” An occasional large of the above weather patterns will many cases eliminated. The most storm system will be possible peri- dominate the next 30 to 45 days and recent list of countries dealing with odically followed by periods of quiet that will translate into mostly favornotable dryness include: Australia, weather. The end result should be a able crop conditions with the excepsouth-central Russia, south-cen- sufficient mix of weather to support tion of winter wheat in Canada’s Prairies, the northern U.S. Plains tral Canada and the northern U.S. crops for this time of year. 42 / November 13, 2012 Milling & Baking News /

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - November 13, 2012

Milling & Baking News - November 13, 2012
Change agent at General Mills, NAMA chairman celebrates ‘noble’ industry
Countering higher input costs, B.B.U. to raise prices in November
Late News - Flat Flowers earnings after one-time charge
Table of Contents
News/Comment - Lack of focus on farm issues likely to change
Editorial - Many milling positives in tough environment
Late News
Data - January-September flour output reaches new record high
Financial Results - Mondelez earnings down 29% in third quarter, sales fall 2%
Oreo, belVita buoy biscuit business at Mondelez
CSM B.S.N.A. unit performs well in tough market
Morning foods wake up at Kellogg
Industry Activities - Millers in ‘deep dive’ exploring possible vitamin D fortification
Meyer elected vice-chair of NAMA; two honorary memberships named
Merchandising - Winners in America’s Best Raisin Bread Contest crowned
Business - Bakers look to resume operations in wake of Hurricane Sandy
Flowers acquiring Bimbo assets in California, Oklahoma
With Wisconsin project, Horizon doubling whole wheat capacity
Baker’s Pride opens new donut plant
Wind farm built to supply power to Bimbo in Mexico begins operating
Strikes may be looming at Hostess Brands baking plants
Mondelez to close Mr. Christie cookie plant in Toronto
Red Star, Lesaffre to raise yeast prices
ADM opens sweetener transfer terminal in Chattanooga
Nutrition and Health - Whole Grain Stamp success spans participating companies of all sizes
Food Ingredient Solutions - Indulge in extras
Milling Technology - ADM Milling expanding Beech Grove flour mill
The Andersons agrees to major grain facility acquisition
Gavilon opens grain facility in South Dakota
POET-DSM buys equipment for cellulose production
Washington - Breaking Washington gridlock
Weather Outlook - In marked change, world weather pattern transitioning to ‘normal
Washington - Elections may bring little change to Senate ag committee
Farm bill fate uncertain in lame duck session of Congress
U.S.D.A. offers assistance to hurricane victims
People - With Cargill c.f.o. resignation, David MacLennan to fill in
Brad Pederson named supply chain manager at Caravan Ingredients
ADM taps two for management positions
Transportation and Distribution - N.G.F.A. seeks easier path to contest ‘unreasonable’ rail rates
Nutrition and Health - Initiative shows gains in nutrition content in children’s cereal
Ingredient Market Trends - U.S.D.A. raises forecasts for U.S. and world 2012-13 wheat ending stocks
Supplier Innovations
Marketplace Business Network
Ad Index

Milling & Baking News - November 13, 2012