Milling & Baking News - September 3, 2013 - 42

Weather Outlook 

U.S. dryness critical; Australia
wheat takes on freezes
U.S. summer crops in the Midwest
were hanging on relatively well during July and early August, despite late
season planting delays and a cooler
biased spring. Rainfall was restricted
during the heart of summer in the
western Corn Belt, but cool weather
preserved much of the crop and kept
yield potentials looking good. Much
warmer temperatures and continued
dry weather in late August turned
that around, creating critically dry
conditions in key western and central U.S. Midwest corn and soybean
production areas forcing yields lower.
The concern for dryness in the United

Crop conditions have been deteriorating at a very fast pace ever since
then, and with another full week of the
same pattern lying ahead the fear is
that soybeans, late corn and sorghum
will all experience a significant decline
in production.
Late August warm and dry weather
affected much of the Midwest and surrounding crop regions. A reduction in
soil moisture again was noted in the majority of the region. Eastern and southernmost portions of the Midwest still
had favorable subsoil moisture at that
time carrying on normal crop development in much of the region. However,
many areas from central Illinois and

States will continue into early September while other worries over dryness continue in Australia, Argentina,
South Africa and West Central Africa.
Summer weather for 2013 will end
up in the record books as just another
perfect example of how production is
far more influenced by temperatures
than by precipitation. July weather was
quite dry in the western Corn Belt, but
temperatures were cooler than usual
during the latter part of the month
and into early August, reducing crop
moisture demand and evaporation
rates. Crops maintained themselves
quite favorably during the milder
period, keeping most of their production potential while the soil slowly
dried down. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms during mid-August
also helped to curb the drying trend,
but a ridge of high pressure over the
middle part of the United States in the
last week of August brought on more
dryness and unusually warm weather,
inducing significant crop stress.

parts of Indiana through northern Missouri and Iowa to the eastern Dakotas
and Minnesota quickly turned critically
dry in the topsoil and marginally adequate to short in the subsoil. Time was
running out for crops to escape dangerous stress in the above drier areas, and
all it needed was hotter temperatures.
Temperatures in the last days of August
rose well above average in many areas
and that pushed crops over the edge and
into a tailspin in production potentials
that will not likely end until significant
rain falls or crops become fully mature.
Topsoil moisture in much of the
Midwest was short to very short near
the end of the month. The greatest topsoil moisture remained in eastern Nebraska and far northwestern Iowa, as
well as from southern Wisconsin into
northeastern Illinois and in random
locations from southeastern Ohio to
eastern Kentucky. At this time of year,
subsoil moisture is most important
for crops. Very short topsoil moisture is not unusual, but having short

BY DREW LERNER

42 / September 3, 2013 Milling & Baking News

to very short subsoil moisture while
temperatures are warmer than usual
may translate into serious stress and
production potential reductions. Such
conditions do exist today in quite
a few areas in Iowa, northern Missouri, northwestern and central Illinois, west-central Indiana, portions of
northern Michigan and in the eastern
Dakotas and a part of Minnesota. Each
of these areas likely is suffering from
yield-reducing moisture stress, especially as soil temperatures rise.
Rainfall through the first week of
September will be dismal in many
central and western portions of the
Midwest. Most areas from southeastern South Dakota into Illinois only
will have a chance to receive up to
0.25 inch and locally greater rainfall.
Any rain that does occur will not be
enough to counter evaporation, and
net drying conditions will continue.
Subsoil moisture shortages gradually
will intensify and expand. Crop stress
will continue to evolve and outlooks
for this year’s harvest will continue to
deteriorate. North Dakota, Minnesota,
Wisconsin and northeastern South
Dakota will receive enough rain to
keep soil moisture at favorable levels.
There may be enough precipitation in
North Dakota and Minnesota to cause
a short-term increase in soil moisture,
but evaporation rates will be too high
for the increase in soil moisture to remain for an extended period of time.
The eastern Midwest also will struggle
to receive a significant amount of rain
during the coming week and in most
cases also will experience net drying conditions. But there is enough moisture in
the subsoil for favorable crop development to continue and the expected showers will help to slow drying rates.
Warm temperatures expected in
the first week of September would be
welcome had there been greater soil
moisture available to crops due to the
cool spring and lack of degree day accumulations in many areas. Limited
soil moisture will allow the heat to only
stress the majority of crops, raising
further concerns about their production potential, especially for soybeans,
which are in the their most moisture
sensitive pod-setting and filling stages
of development. Persistent heat and
dryness at this time of year will reduce
yields and oilseed quality. Corn is a little further advanced, and even though
heat and dryness may reduce yields
and quality the decline will be less significant than that of the soybean crop.
The only good news in the hot, dry,
bias is that immature crops will be
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