Milling & Baking News - September 17, 2013 - 45



2013 corn crop forecast raised
80 million bus from August
Continued from Page 1

an acre in 2012 and the highest average yield since 2009, the U.S.D.A.
said. Harvested area was forecast at
89,135,000 acres, unchanged from August but up 2% from 87,375,000 acres
in 2012.
“The Sept. 1 corn objective yield
data indicate the highest number of
ears on record for the combined 10 objective yield states,” the U.S.D.A. said.
Soybean yield was forecast at 41.2
bus an acre, down 1.4 bus from 42.6 bus
an acre forecast in August but up 1.6
bus from 39.6 bus an acre in 2012. Harvested area was forecast at 76,378,000
acres, unchanged from August but up
slightly from 76,104,000 acres in 2012.

“The September objective yield
data for the combined 11 major
soybean producing states indicate
a higher pod count compared with
last year as conditions have generally been more favorable across the

bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com

Midwest,” the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. 2013 rice production was forecast at 185,077,000 cwts, up 2% from
181,364,000 cwts forecast in August
but down 7% from 199,479,000 cwts in
2012.
Sorghum outturn in 2013 was forecast at 396,105,000 bus, up 10% from
358,892,000 bus forecast in August and
up 60% from 246,932,000 bus in 2012. MBN

U.S. corn production
(in million bus)
15,000
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13*
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

U.S.D.A. raises 2014 wheat ending
stocks forecast to 561 million bus
WASHINGTON — The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department
of Agriculture on Sept. 12 forecast the
carryover of wheat on June 1, 2014,
at 561 million bus, up 10 million bus
from the August projection but down
157 million bus, or 22%, from 718 million bus in 2013. If the carryover forecast is realized, the June 1, 2014, wheat
inventory would be the smallest since
306 million bus in 2008, which, in turn,
was the smallest since 1948. It would
compare with 791 million bus as the
recent-five year average ending stocks
and would be similar to the June 1 inventory in 2006 at 571 million bus.
The increase in the carryover forecast from the August outlook was the
result of a 10-million-bu hike in forecast imports in 2013-14 to 140 million
bus as all other all-wheat supply-anddemand forecasts were unchanged.
The U.S.D.A.’s all-wheat production forecast at 2,114 million bus was
unchanged from August and was
down 155 million bus, or 7%, from
2,269 million bus in 2012. The U.S.D.A.
as a rule doesn’t update its wheat production forecast in either its September World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates or its September
Crop Production report. The next official wheat production estimate will
be released at the end of September in
the department’s Small Grains Summary 2013. The 2013-14 wheat supply was forecast at 2,972 million bus,
up 10 million bus from the August

Data

*forecast

carryover was 343 million bus. The
2014 hard red winter wheat carryover
was forecast to be the smallest since
138 million bus in 2008 and would
compare with 337 million bus as the
recent five-year average carryover.
The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 180 million bus,
up 10 million bus from the August
projection and up 15 million bus from
165 million bus in 2013. The increase

projection because of the 10-millionbu hike in the import forecast.
Domestic wheat usage forecasts for
2013-14 were unchanged from August
with food use at a record 958 million
bus, up 13 million bus from 2012-13,
seed use at 73 million bus, unchanged
from the previous year, and
feed and residual use at 280
Wheat supply, disappearance
million bus, down 110 million
bus, or 28%, from 390 million
2013-14* 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11
bus in 2012-13.
— (million bus) —
The U.S.D.A.’s export foreSupply
cast for 2013-14 also was unCarryover
718
743
862
976
changed from August at 1,100
Crop
2,114
2,269
1,999
2,207
million bus, which was up 93
Imports
140
123
112
96
million bus, or 9%, from the
Total
2,972
3,134
2,974
3,279
2012-13 outgo of 1,007 million
Domestic disappearance
bus.
Food
958
945
941
926
The average farm price of
Seed
73
73
76
70
wheat in 2013-14 was forecast
Feed
280
390
162
132
at $6.50@7.50 a bu compared
Total
1,311
1,409
1,180
1,128
with the August projected
Exports
1,100
1,007
1,051
1,289
range of $6.40@7.60 a bu and
Total disappearance
2,411
2,416
2,231
2,417
with $7.77 a bu in 2012-13 and
Ending stocks
561
718
743
862
*forecast
$7.24 a bu in 2011-12.
The U.S.D.A. made several
adjustments to its supply-andWheat carryover by classes
demand forecasts by class. The
hard red winter wheat carry2014*
2013
2012
2011
over was forecast at 197 million
— (million bus) —
bus, unchanged from the AuHard winter
197
343
317
386
gust outlook as a 10-million-bu
Soft red
106
124
185
171
reduction in forecast domestic
Hard spring
180
165
151
185
use, to 532 million bus, was
White
51
63
64
85
offset by an increase in forecast
Durum
28
23
25
35
exports to 415 million bus. The
Total
561
718
743
862
*forecast
2013 hard red winter wheat
Milling & Baking News September 17, 2013 / 45

http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com

Milling & Baking News - September 17, 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Milling & Baking News - September 17, 2013