Milling & Baking News - November 26, 2013 - 16

Data 

Quarterly flour output down;
year to date still record
WASHINGTON - Flour production
by U.S. mills in the third quarter of 2013
totaled 106,598,000 cwts, down 2% from
108,754,000 cwts in the same quarter of
2012. Even with the decrease, year-todate production held at the record first
established at the six-month mark.
Output for the first three quarters
of 2013 aggregated 314,429,000 cwts,
up a hair from 314,152,000 cwts in the
first nine months of 2012. These figures
were based on data gathered by Veris
Consulting, Inc. on behalf of the North
American Millers' Association. Because
Veris collects production statistics from
milling companies representing 95.1%
of U.S. capacity (down from 95.4% in
2012 and earlier), Milling & Baking News
has interpolated the figures to make the
time series comparable to Census Bureau figures gathered in earlier years
from the entire industry.
Based on the Veris data alone, flour
production in July-September was
101,375,000 cwts, down 2.3% from
103,750,000 in the same quarter of
2012. It was up 1.6% from 99,759,000
cwts in April-June. Veris estimated 24hour capacity of U.S. mills at 1,476,485
cwts, up 0.8% from a downward revised capacity of 1,464,480 a year back.
Looking at production trends over

the past 12 months, output from October 2012 through September 2013 was
a near record 420,642,000 cwts (third
highest), falling shy of the record high
of 422,797,000 cwts in July 2012-June
2013 as well as the established JanuaryDecember peak of 421,270,000 cwts in
2000. These numbers indicate that in order for 2013 to set a new official record
the forthcoming October-December interpolated total must exceed the fourth
quarter of 2012 by 628,000 cwts, dimming the earlier prospect for a high.
Flour mills in the United States operated at 89.2% of six-day capacity in

July-September, up from 87.9% in the
second quarter but down from 93.2% in
the third quarter of 2012. Six-day week
runs included 77 days in July-September,
April-June and a year ago. Mills in the
first three quarters operated at an average of 88.5% of six-day capacity, compared with 89.4% in the prior year. MBN

Third-quarter operating rate
95%
93%
91%
89%
87%
85%

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Source: Milling & Baking News

Quarterly U.S. wheat flour production
(million cwts)

115
110
105
100
95
90

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Quarterly production of flour, grind of wheat,
millfeed output on six-day weekly basis*
Flour
Daily
Per
production capacity
cent
(1,000 cwts)
operated

Flour
Daily
Per
cent
production capacity
(1,000 cwts)
operated
Jul-Sep-13
Apr-Jun-13
Jan-Mar-13
Oct-Dec-12
Jul-Sep-12
Apr-Jun-12
Jan-Mar-12
Oct-Dec-11
Jul-Sep-11
Apr-Jun-11
Jan-Mar-11
Oct-Dec-10
Jul-Sep-10
Apr-Jun-10
Jan-Mar-10
Oct-Dec-09
Jul-Sep-09

106,598
104,899
102,932
106,213
108,754
101,936
103,462
105,998
105,410
100,313
100,024
104,792
108,593
101,479
102,532
103,717
107,353

1,553
1,549
1,532
1,534
1,535
1,527
1,523
1,522
1,519
1,539
1,539
1,544
1,550
1,546
1,541
1,534
1,536

89.2%
87.9%
88.4%
89.9%
93.2%
86.7%
88.2%
90.5%
90.1%
84.7%
85.5%
88.1%
91.0%
85.2%
87.5%
87.8%
90.8%

Apr-Jun-09
Jan-Mar-09

102,926
100,662

1,534
1,532

87.1%
86.5%

Oct-Dec-08
Jul-Sep-08
Apr-Jun-08
Jan-Mar-08

104,218
108,175
102,508
101,382

1,531
1,543
1,548
1,548

88.4%
91.0%
86.0%
85.1%

Oct-Dec-07
Jul-Sep-07
Apr-Jun-07
Jan-Mar-07

107,063
109,017
102,501
100,255

1,535
1,535
1,530
1,529

90.6%
93.4%
87.0%
85.2%

Oct-Dec-06
Jul-Sep-06
Apr-Jun-06
Jan-Mar-06

102,460
104,859
97,969
98,103

1,506
1,501
1,499
1,499

89.5%
90.7%
84.9%
86.1%

Oct-Dec-05
Jul-Sep-05
Apr-Jun-05

100,346
102,477
96,240

1,492
1,492
1,494

87.3%
89.2%
83.7%

Flour
Daily
Per
production capacity
cent
(1,000 cwts)
operated
Jan-Mar-05

95,910

1,493

84.5%

Oct-Dec-04
Jul-Sep-04
Apr-Jun-04
Jan-Mar-04

99,669
100,908
96,773
96,575

1,493
1,503
1,494
1,494

86.7%
87.2%
84.1%
84.0%

Oct-Dec-03
Jul-Sep-03
Apr-Jun-03
Jan-Mar-03

100,502
103,071
96,767
95,875

1,512
1,517
1,503
1,507

86.3%
88.2%
83.6%
83.7%

Oct-Dec-02
Jul-Sep-02
Apr-Jun-02
Jan-Mar-02

100,275
102,132
96,276
96,017

1,499
1,489
1,473
1,493

86.9%
89.1%
84.9%
84.6%

Oct-Dec-01
Jul-Sep-01
Apr-Jun-01
Jan-Mar-01

105,806
102,077
97,189
99,449

1,531
1,543
1,604
1,588

89.8%
87.0%
78.7%
81.3%

*Data since July 2011 gathered by Veris Consulting and interpolated by Milling & Baking News. Earlier data from Census Bureau.
16 / November 26, 2013 Milling & Baking News

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Milling & Baking News - November 26, 2013

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