Milling & Baking News - February 18, 2014 - 51

Ingredient Market Trends
Weekly Spotlight

U.S.D.A. trims corn carryover
forecast, soybeans unchanged

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bakingbusiness.com / Milling & Baking
51 / July 3, 2007 world-grain.com News

he Economic Research Service of
the U.S. Department of Agriculture
on Feb. 10 forecast the carryover
of corn on Sept. 1, 2014, at 1,481 million
bus, down 150 million bus, or 9%, from
the January projection but up 660 million
bus, or 80%, from 821 million bus in
2013. The reduction in the carryover
forecast was due to a 150-million-bu hike
in the U.S.D.A.'s corn export forecast for
2013-14 to 1,600 million bus. All other
supply-and-demand forecasts for corn
were unchanged from the department's
January projections with the exception
of the forecast range for the average
farm price of corn in the current year,
which was raised 10c a bu, to $4.20@4.80
a bu, and compared with a record $6.89
a bu in 2012-13.
"Reduced foreign export prospects
also lower competition for U.S. corn in
world markets," the U.S.D.A. noted in
commentary accompanying the corn
supply-and-demand forecasts.
The U.S.D.A. estimated the 2013 corn
crop at a record 13,925 million bus, up
29% from 10,780 million bus in 2012.
Corn imports in 2013-14 were forecast
at 35 million bus, down 127 million
bus in 2012-13. The total corn supply in
the current year was forecast at 14,781
million bus, up 24% from 11,932 million
bus in 2012-13.
The U.S.D.A. forecast feed and
residual use of corn in 2013-14 at 5,300
million bus, up 22% from 4,335 million
bus in the previous year. Food, seed
and industrial use of corn in the current
year was forecast at 6,400 million bus,
up 6% from 6,044 million bus in 201213. Of the food, seed and industrial use
of corn, 5,000 million bus was forecast
to be used in the production of ethanol
and its byproducts, up 8% from 4,648
million bus in 2012-13 and equal to 201112 usage.
Total corn disappearance in 2013-14
was forecast at 13,300 million bus, up 150
million bus from the January projection
and up 20% from 11,111 million bus in
2012-13.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the carryover of
soybeans on Sept. 1, 2014, at 150 million
bus, unchanged from the January

projection and up 9 million bus from 141
million bus in 2013.
With a crop estimated at 3,289 million
bus and imports forecast at 30 million
bus, up 5 million bus from the January
projection, the U.S. soybean supply in
2013-14 was forecast at 3,459 million
bus, up 5 million bus from January and
up 220 million bus, or 7%, from 2012-13.
Soybean crushings in the current

year were forecast at 1,700 million bus,
unchanged from January and up 11
million bus from 2012-13. The U.S.D.A.
forecast 2013-14 soybean exports at a
record 1,510 million bus, up 15 million
bus from January and up 190 million
bus, or 14%, from 1,320 million bus in
the previous year.
Seed use of soybeans was forecast at
87 million, unchanged from January and
down 2 million bus from 2013. Residual
use of soybeans was forecast at 12 million
bus, down 10 million bus from January
but up 11 million bus from 2012-13. The
U.S.D.A. forecast total disappearance
of soybeans in 2013-14 at 3,309 million
bus, up 5 million bus from the January
projection and up 210 million bus, or 7%,
from 3,099 million bus in 2012-13.
The U.S.D.A. forecast the average
farm price of soybeans in 2013-14 at
$11.95@13.45 a bu, up 20c from the
January projected range and compared
with a record $14.40 a bu in 2012-13. MBN
Milling & Baking News February 18, 2014 / 51
bakingbusiness.com / world-grain.com
http://www.bakingbusiness.com http://www.world-grain.com
Milling & Baking News - February 18, 2014

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