Milling & Baking News - May 13, 2014 - 9

Editorial



Remarkable per capita flour data

hen the chief executive of one of the na- three years where per capita consumption gained
tion's largest food companies, W. An- annually, preferred attention should be given to
thony Vernon of Kraft Foods Inc., cites a truly astounding difference from the past - a
"a sluggish consumer environment," as he did in dozen years when per capita consumption of wheat
a recent quarterly report, heads are likely to nod flour held within a narrow enough range that the
agreement across major sectors of the food indus- measure could be described as holding its own. Betry. Mr. Vernon added some specificity to his com- ginning in 2002, when per capita dropped 4 pounds
ments by noting that industrywide consumption to 137, the yearly measure has mostly varied only
has lagged population growth for the past year or by 2 pounds and, as noted, ended in 2013 at 135.
longer and that he expects "unit growth to remain This is the longest period in history for per capita to
below population growth in the near term." Such display such steadiness. As a reminder, per capita
an outlook, which may only be called gloomy, dif- consumption for the first 70 years of the 20th cenfers remarkably from the prospect painted by the tury decreased almost every year, falling to a low
annual calculations of wheat flour disappearance of 110 pounds. From that point, an upward move
by the Economic Research Service of the U.S. De- began that continued to near the end of the century,
partment of Agriculture. These data, the issuance of reaching 147 pounds, the recent peak. A brief periwhich are eagerly anticipated in grain-based foods, od of falls occurred around the start of the 21st censhow flour consumption
tury followed by steadiness.
Without a focused effort that
gaining in line with popuAnyone who might be dissucceeds in influencing consumers,
lation, contrasting with Mr.
appointed by recent trends
the steadiness of per capita
Vernon's perspective on
should not only look at how
consumption in the past dozen years
food business.
much
better
flour-based
There is no better measure will become only a dream rather than foods is doing than the food
a base for building future growth.
of the relationship between
industry as a whole but also
product consumption and
should look at total consumppopulation than per capita calculations. The recent tion. Between 2002 and 2013, flour disappearance
E.R.S. data actually show an increase between 2012 gained 32,378,000 hundredweights, or 8 per cent. That
and 2013 as per capita flour disappearance rose to rise, propelled by population growth and steady per
134.7 pounds from 134.4 the previous year. This capita intake, equals a month's output. With domestic
publication prefers rounding off these numbers, disappearance now comfortably above 400 million, at
placing 2013 use at 135 pounds, compared with 426,460,000 hundredweights, grain-based foods has
134 in 2012 and 133 in 2011. These figures indicate outperformed most of the food industry.
a stark contrast between grain-based foods and the
Such an achievement may not be noted without
entire food industry.
several warnings. If the industry is dependent now
Of course, the overall flour total varied among on population to maintain and increase demand, it
industry sectors. Without exact figures, it is prob- should recognize that these trends are downward.
ably correct to assume that flour consumption grew Of course, new immigration rules could have a treenough in variety, specialty and artisan products mendous impact, as well as new attitudes toward
to offset the slack ruling in sliced white bread. A family size. Another warning is the need to conrebound in food service sectors that emphasize front unwarranted and often quack-like attacks on
sandwiches is also credited with boosting the per- the quality of foods made with wheat flour. Without
formance of flour-based foods. Considering the a focused effort that succeeds in influencing conhealth-related scares meant to exert a negative in- sumers, the steadiness of per capita consumption
fluence, this showing might be seen as exceptional. in the past dozen years will become only a dream
As tempting at it may be to focus only on the past rather than a base for building future growth. MBN
MORTON SOSLAND, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF
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