Milling & Baking News - September 30, 2014 - 26

Weather Outlook 

World wheat prospects look promising
BY DREW LERNER

Well-timed rainfall in U.S. hard red
winter wheat country, China, India and
Australia has set the stage for a big year
in potential wheat production. Conditions in Europe and the western Commonwealth of Independent States are
also quite favorable and little change
was anticipated for a while.
U.S. hard red winter wheat country
has reported frequent rainfall in recent
weeks, but it is interesting to note that
the rains outside of the Texas Panhandle have not been nearly as abundant
as one might think. With that said,
there is room for additional moisture,
and what has fallen in recent weeks
has been almost perfect for advancing fieldwork while watering in the
seed and fertilizer enough to stimulate
quick germination and emergence.
The forecast in hard red winter
wheat country is still quite promising
with additional bouts of timely rainfall slated for the production region

greater rainfall is needed. Their wish is
likely to be satisfactorily fulfilled in the
next few weeks as other bouts of rainy
weather impact the region.
Seasonal cooling also will help U.S.
central Plains production areas moisten up more efficiently in the next few
weeks. In the past, frequent showers
and thunderstorms have occurred
while daily high temperatures have
reached into the 80s and 90s Fahrenheit. That will change in the next few
weeks with 70s and 80s expected in
the last days of September and early
October, and readings by mid-October
will be in the 60s and 70s most often.
Much less evaporation will take place
at those lower temperatures and that
will take the above average rainfall
expected and translate it into a more
notable increase in soil moisture.

Rainfall in China impresses
Mid-September rainfall in China
was quite impressive. During a single
week rain totals
ranged from 3 to
22-day precipitation ending dawn Sept. 22, 2014
more than 7 inches
across the region's
most
important
wheat production
region. The area
ended up with two
to more than four
times the usual
rainfall in the first
three weeks of September. Parts of the
production region
Source:
had been drier
National
than usual prior to
Weather
Service
the rain event and
much of the moiswell into October. There is some po- ture soaked deep into the ground cretential for a part of the region to trend ating a much improved wheat planting
a little wetter than usual, but farmers and emergence environment.
China was finishing September with a
likely will find the moisture of great
use to crops, especially in those areas drier-than-usual bias, and temperatures
were close enough to normal that the
that have been dry in recent years.
Rainfall in the southwestern Plains combined impact was setting the stage
so far this month has been well above for aggressive autumn planting potenaverage. Areas from southeastern Col- tials for wheat throughout the nation.
In addition to the improved soil
orado and extreme southwestern Kansas through all of western Texas have moisture in wheat country, it is exbrought topsoil moisture up dramati- tremely important to note that China
cally. The wetter bias has greatly im- irrigates the majority of its wheat
proved surface moisture for planting, because of a long dry season that occurs from October through May. The
germination and emergence.
The driest region in the central recent rain has bolstered water supply
Plains has been in south-central Kan- for that irrigation, and the combined
sas, north-central and northwestern impact of favorable soil moisture and
Oklahoma and southeastern Colorado. abundant water supply will virtually
Some producers will explain that the assure a good planting, emergence
situation is still tenuous and that much and establishment season unless some
26 / September 30, 2014 Milling & Baking News

seriously anomalous weather pattern
evolves in the next few weeks, which
is not anticipated.
Recent soakings in India
India's monsoon season is ending,
but it performed much better in the
past two-and-a-half months than it
did in the first six weeks of the season.
Drought-like conditions that occurred
in June and early July have been eliminated by not only well-timed rain
events, but by a slightly later-thanusual withdrawal of monsoonal rainfall. The prolonged and beneficial late
season rain has recharged water supply - similar to that in China. India
produces a huge wheat crop, and if
monsoonal rainfall is late withdrawing and abundant prior to ending, the
nation often finds the wheat planting
season to be quite favorable.
In addition to India's recent soakings
there is potential for El Niño-like conditions to evolve this autumn and winter.
If the phenomenon occurs as advertised
there may be some timely rain events
across wheat production areas to supplement the late summer rainfall while
wheat is establishing and approaching
reproduction. A wetter bias in January
and February cannot be ruled out just
yet because of the El Niño evolution
potential and if the rain occurs as suggested the nation would be poised to
produce a tremendous wheat crop.
Timely rainfall in Australia
Australia is another area of interest
from a wheat production perspective.
Southern portions of the nation have
had some timely rainfall this past autumn and winter. Crops from southern
parts of Western Australia to Victoria
and southern New South Wales have
seen timely rainfall and seasonable temperatures to support good production
potentials. There have been some frost
and light freezes in recent weeks, but the
damage is not suspected of being great
enough to seriously harm production.
Timely rainfall is anticipated for Australia during the month of October, and
that will translate into favorable production. Some of the east-central parts
of the nation are not expected to yield
well because of dryness during reproduction. The region impacted only represents 7% of the total production area
and there are quite a few production areas that may not yield ideally, but will
still produce a fair sized crop. Since the
bulk of wheat is produced in southern
parts of the nation where wheat development potential is quite high and
only a small percentage of the wheat
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Milling & Baking News - September 30, 2014

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