Milling & Baking News - December 23, 2014 - 26

Weather Outlook

U.S. Central Plains, South Russia
and Ukraine dryness eased
across parts of western and northern
Russia, Belarus and the Baltic States.
Precipitation totals in western and
northern Russia in the first half of December were near to above average,
but there were a few locations in far
west-central and southwestern Russia,
Belarus and Ukraine that still reported
less than half of normal precipitation.
At this time of year it does not take
much precipitation to be rated above
average, and that makes it a little misleading to talk about precipitation being above normal, unless the amounts
of moisture are included in the discussion. A more meaningful assessment
chart would be the November and
early December percentage of normal precipitation chart in which it becomes obvious that
14-day per cent of normal rain ended Dec. 15, 2014
a big part of southern Russia, Ukraine
and Belarus have
not come out of their
multi-month period
of dryness. Dryness
began in some of
these areas back in
the start of the planting season in August.
The persistent below
average precipitation
leaves winter crops
in poor condition.
A significant boost
in precipitation must
occur in the weeks
same period of time began slipping and months leading up to the start of the
near and slightly below the damage spring growing season. If a below averthreshold for unprotected crops in late age precipitation bias prevails there may
November and damage was suspected. be further losses to some of the 2015
Multiple days of near-zero and sub- crop. The situation needs to be closely
zero degree Fahrenheit temperatures monitored. Weather in the second half
were noted in areas that received very of December is expected to remain drier
poor precipitation during the autumn than usual in the same areas reporting
planting season. Winter wheat and rye below average precipitation in the past
were not only poorly established when six weeks putting much pressure on
dormancy set in, but snow cover was January and February precipitation to
absent when damaging temperatures be above average so that there is moisaffected the region. The already weak- ture for crops to work with in the spring.
ened state of crop conditions prior to
the bitter cold likely raised the poten- U.S. Central Plains
Rain and snow fell significantly
tial for damage in many areas when the
cold arrived. Assessing the losses will across the central U.S. Plains during
the week ended Dec. 15. Most of the
not be possible prior to spring.
Some much needed snow and a precipitation occurred over two days
little rain fell shortly after the coldest ended Dec. 15. The precipitation varweather affected winter crops. Some ied from 0.20 to 0.80 of an inch, which
protection came to crop areas as warm- is not enough to seriously soak the
er air began to build into the region. ground, but compared to "normal"
Some waves of light rain and snow precipitation at this time of year the
then occurred during mid-December moisture was quite significant.
BY DREW LERNER

Dryness that dominated the autumn
season across portions of the U.S. Central Plains, southern Russia and Ukraine
has been "eased" in the past few weeks,
but much more relief is needed prior to
spring to put crops on the road to recovery. Relief from dryness in parts of
southern Russia and Ukraine only came
after crop threatening cold weather occurred. Some damage was suspected to
wheat and rye across the previously dry
region in the western Commonwealth
of Independent States.
Snow free conditions occurred from
late November into early December
across a large part of the previously
dry region in southern Russia and
Ukraine. Temperatures during the

26 / December 23, 2014

Milling & Baking News

Rain totals for the first half of December rose from less than half of normal
in most of the central Plains to above
average in just two days. A few counties in the interior west-central, northwestern and north-central Kansas into
southeastern Nebraska failed to get
enough moisture to seriously bolster
soil moisture. However, eastern Colorado, far northwestern Kansas and
much of western and central Nebraska
did get enough moisture to improve
field conditions with some areas getting significant snowfall, as well.
Winter wheat is dormant or semidormant across the central Plains, limiting the amount of improvement to
crop conditions prior to spring. However, the ground was not completely
frozen, and some of the moisture likely
soaked into the soil where root and tiller systems will be able to benefit just
as soon as soil temperatures are warm
enough to support new growth again.
Even though some relief has occurred, additional precipitation still
is needed to more fully replenish soil
moisture levels back to normal.
In the meantime, many soft wheat
production areas in the Midwest experienced drier biased conditions in the
first half of December. The change was
welcome after too much rain and too
much cold weather occurred in November. The change was welcome, although
the pattern may not prevail in southern
parts of the Midwest. Some of the region
from Missouri through southern Ohio
was not included in the drier biased
weather, and there is need for additional
drying in those areas. Too much moisture and cold weather in November
pushed crops into dormancy too soon,
and many did not establish well.
Weather conditions in the United
States were quite warm during the
first half of December. Temperatures
will trend cooler in the last half of the
month, and precipitation is expected
to increase once again. The moisture
boost will be most significant from the
southern Plains into the lower Ohio
River Basin, lower Mississippi River
Basin and southeastern states. The
wetter conditions will leave the central U.S. Plains only partially eased
from long-term dryness. The southern
Plains, however, will see additional
moisture to help assure improved
winter crop establishment during periods of warmer than usual weather.
Argentina
Concern about Argentina grain
quality came to an end during mid-December when a drier biased weather
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Milling & Baking News - December 23, 2014

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