Milling & Baking News - April 28, 2015 - 42

Weather Outlook

U.S. hard red winter wheat
benefitting from rain
BY ANDREW OWEN AND DREW LERNER

KANSAS CITY - Timely rain evolved
in much of the U.S. central and southern Plains during mid-April easing
dryness that had been prevailing for
an extended period of time. Many areas received enough rain to bolster soil
moisture and promote better wheat
development conditions.
Not all areas benefited equally. Rain
in the first 20 days in April was still
notably below average in western portions of the Texas Panhandle northeast
into southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado. However, the area
of dryness this month is insignificant
relative to the huge
region of dryness
that was prevailing
in March. Nevertheless, there is still a
strong demand for
rain in the areas that
have not been seriously relieved - at
least in unirrigated
production areas.
In addition to the
widespread rain that
fell during the middle part of April there
was a trend change
that affected temperatures. March and
early April were frequently very warm
to hot, and that, in combination with
little to no precipitation, was stressing
young crops coming out of dormancy.
By April 20, at least some relief had taken place across the wheat region, but the
need for follow up rain was still great
due to low subsoil moisture.
The recent rain in U.S. hard red winter wheat country and, for that matter,
the western Corn and Soybean Belt as
well, was in direct contrast to the dry
conditions that occurred in March.
Precipitation last month was less than
half of normal for many areas from
the Great Lakes region back into the
central Plains with many hard red
winter wheat production areas getting
less than 25% of normal moisture. The
areas from western parts of the Texas
Panhandle to southwestern Kansas
and southeastern Colorado remain
quite dry relative to normal for this
month, and clearly those regions were
seriously dry last month, as well.
As of April 20, 50% of the wheat in
Texas and 35% of the wheat in Oklahoma had headed. Only 4% of the wheat
42 / April 28, 2015

Milling & Baking News

in Kansas had headed while the wheat
in Colorado and Nebraska had not
yet reached the heading stage. Winter
wheat conditions were mostly (74%)
rated in fair to good shape. However,
crop conditions could gradually deteriorate if the central and southern
Plains miss out on timely precipitation in coming weeks. Only 7% of this
year's crop was rated excellent and
19% was rated poor to very poor. Despite the low ratings, conditions were
notably improved over those of last
year when 33% of the crop rated poor
to very poor.
The same weather pattern that had

been prevailing during mid-April will
continue into much of May offering
further relief to dryness in the central
and southern Plains, as well as the U.S.
western Corn Belt. Some of the benefits of frequent rain in winter wheat
country will not be fully extended into
the U.S. Midwest, lower Mississippi
River Basin or parts of the southeastern states because of already saturated
field conditions and some recent delays to farming activity.
Spring planting and general fieldwork were behind the average pace in
the lower Midwest, Delta and southeastern states. Frequent rainfall and
periodic bouts of cool weather combined to slow the early season planting pace, and some of the soft red
wheat produced in the lower Midwest
was not rated as favorably as usual because of constant wet conditions.
U.S. weather patterns are not very
likely to change much over the balance of April or early May, and that
may lead to some perpetuating concerns about slow planting in the lower
Midwest and parts of the southeastern

United States. Field progress will advance, albeit at a slower-than-usual
pace. Some short-term bouts of improved weather and field conditions
are expected, and that will open the
door for some short spurts of aggressive fieldwork.
China
Small grain crop weather in the remainder of the world varies greatly
this spring, but no area has had weather as good as that in China. China's
winter wheat crop went into the fields
last autumn with some timely precipitation setting good root and tiller systems. The winter was filled with sufficient cool weather without any winterkill, and a few timely precipitation
events occurred to maintain favorable
moisture levels for
root systems.
Early spring in China has come with some
well-timed, significant
rain events. The moisture came at first with
cool early season temperatures, which only
helped to conserve
soil moisture through
low drying rates. The
moisture built up in
many areas, and when
temperatures finally
warmed sufficiently
in early to mid-April
crop growth rates accelerated dramatically.
China's wheat production prospects
are tremendous and little change is
anticipated as long as the well timed
rainfall and seasonably warm temperatures prevail through May, as expected. Evolving El Niño conditions may
bring some dryness around late this
spring, but it is doubtful that production will be seriously affected unless
the drier bias comes with persistent
very warm temperatures.
India
Almost unprecedented rainfall fell
in India during the March through
early April period. Nearly five weeks
of unusually significant amounts of
rain occurred simultaneously with the
advancement of grain filling, maturation and early harvesting. The situation was grim for some areas that received substantially more rain than
usual. That period of time often generates 0.25 to 0.75 inch of moisture in
northern, central and southern India.
This year's rain totals ranged from
1.50 to more than 5 inches, which may
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